How many years of data should a backtest cover?
Enough to include regimes that disagree with each other — at minimum one full drawdown-and-recovery cycle. A strategy tested only on 2023–2025 has never met a bear market; one tested through 2021–2026 has seen a euphoric run, a 25%+ index decline (2022), a recovery, and rate-regime whiplash. More history is generally better, with a caveat: markets change structurally (decimalization, ETF proliferation, zero commissions), so a rule's 1995 performance may describe a market that no longer exists. For daily-signal ETF strategies, five to ten years of minute-resolution data is a reasonable floor — and weight recent regimes more than distant ones when judging.
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Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.