DeployQuantSMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop on TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares: 3x daily leveraged long-term Treasuries, a leveraged rate bet. Backtest 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, computed by the same engine that runs live DeployQuant strategies.
Year by year
| Year | trend + trailing stop | buy & hold |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6.7% | −18.8% |
| 2022 | −13.7% | −69.7% |
| 2023 | −17.2% | −9.9% |
| 2024 | −30.2% | −30.7% |
| 2025 | −7.1% | −2.3% |
| 2026 | −8.5% | −23.1% |
Month by month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | −6.5% |
| 2022 | −13.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −4.3% | −10.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −2.9% |
| 2024 | −10.3% | −7.7% | 1.1% | −8.3% | 0.0% | −4.8% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | −20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.8% | 3.0% | −0.2% | −8.8% |
| 2026 | −5.3% | 12.9% | −14.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | – | – |
Every trade
trend + trailing stop on TMF made 9 closed round trips, an average hold of 57 days, an average winner of 4.98%, an average loser of −12.22%, a profit factor of 0.12, a longest losing streak of 4. It held a position at the close on 24.5% of trading days.
| Entry | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Return | Days held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-19 | $225.53 | 2021-12-29 | $235.19 | 4.3% | 71 |
| 2021-12-29 | $234.72 | 2022-01-18 | $206.58 | −12.0% | 20 |
| 2023-04-10 | $80.65 | 2023-05-16 | $68.41 | −15.2% | 36 |
| 2023-12-21 | $60.10 | 2024-01-16 | $52.13 | −13.3% | 26 |
| 2024-02-02 | $53.27 | 2024-04-02 | $45.35 | −14.9% | 60 |
| 2024-06-06 | $46.74 | 2024-10-04 | $49.39 | 5.7% | 120 |
| 2024-10-04 | $49.62 | 2024-10-29 | $42.59 | −14.2% | 25 |
| 2025-09-09 | $38.96 | 2025-12-12 | $36.12 | −7.3% | 94 |
| 2026-01-15 | $37.93 | 2026-03-20 | $34.61 | −8.8% | 64 |
Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they sit below the quotes printed at the time. An open position is marked at the last close.
Largest drawdowns
| Peak | Low point | Depth | Days to low | Recovered | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-03 | 2026-03-20 | −62.5% | 1568 | not yet | – |
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-11-23 | −12.2% | 14 | 2021-11-30 | 7 |
| 2021-10-18 | 2021-10-21 | −3.9% | 3 | 2021-10-26 | 5 |
Buy-and-hold's deepest drawdown ran from 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 and reached −88.5%.
With trading costs
The headline run fills at the bar price. These runs charge slippage on every fill.
| Slippage per fill | CAGR | Max drawdown | Final value | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None (headline) | −12.9% | −62.5% | $4,518 | -0.63 |
| 5 basis points | −13.1% | −62.9% | $4,466 | -0.63 |
| 10 basis points | −13.3% | −63.3% | $4,416 | -0.64 |
Changing the parameters
| Version | CAGR | Max drawdown | Round trips | Win rate | Final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published rules | −12.9% | −62.5% | 9 | 22% | $4,518 |
| 10% trailing stop | −8.0% | −51.0% | 14 | 29% | $6,215 |
| 20% trailing stop | −15.7% | −68.7% | 7 | 14% | $3,764 |
| 25% trailing stop | −13.9% | −64.9% | 5 | 0% | $4,222 |
How TMF behaved
| Measure | TMF |
|---|---|
| Data in this test | 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 (1444 sessions) |
| Total return, buy and hold | −91.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 45.7% |
| Deepest drawdown | −91.4% (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02) |
| Up days | 48.5% |
| Average daily range | 2.81% |
| Average overnight gap | 1.63% |
| Correlation to SPY | 0.08 |
| Correlation to QQQ | 0.09 |
| Correlation to TLT | 1.00 |
| Sessions above the 200-day average | 16.4% |
| Crossings of the 200-day average | 33 |
| Falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high | 62 |
The rules
Enter when price is above the 200-day average; exit only when a 15% trailing stop is hit.
- WHEN the market opens · IF not invested AND yesterday's close > SMA(200) · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve
- WHILE invested · a managed trailing stop follows 15% below the position's high-water mark
A hybrid of the regime filter and the trailing stop. The 200-day average decides when to get in, and a 15% trail from the position's high-water mark decides when to get out. Winners can run well past the point where a crossover would have exited, and the position gives back 15% from every peak.
Good for: long trends with moderate pullbacks; the 15% trail is wide enough to survive normal corrections.
Watch out: every exit gives back 15% from the peak, and on choppy assets it re-enters above the 200-day repeatedly after each stop-out.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.7 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
Did trend + trailing stop beat buy-and-hold on TMF?
Over 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, trend + trailing stop on TMF returned −12.9% annualized vs −31.2% for buy-and-hold: it beat buy-and-hold by 18.2% per year, with a maximum drawdown 26.0 points shallower than holding (62.5% vs 88.5%).
How many trades did it make?
9 completed round trips over 5.7 years (18 fills), with 22% of round trips closing profitably.
Why 15% rather than 10%?
A wider trail survives routine corrections and gives back more at the end. Both numbers are one-field edits in DeployQuant, so you can backtest both and compare.
Related
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.