FXE trading strategies, backtested
Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust — the euro versus the US dollar. Every DeployQuant template run on FXE over 5.5 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | 2.5% | −7.9% | 0.47 | 0 | — | $11,456 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | 1.9% | −8.2% | 0.40 | 17 | 35% | $11,080 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | 1.6% | −6.4% | 0.35 | 14 | 36% | $10,929 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | 1.4% | −11.6% | 0.30 | 20 | 30% | $10,806 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | 1.0% | −8.1% | 0.28 | 4 | 50% | $10,570 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | 0.5% | −16.2% | 0.11 | 15 | 53% | $10,263 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | 0.4% | −8.8% | 0.11 | 4 | 50% | $10,215 |
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | 0.3% | −12.5% | 0.08 | 163 | 56% | $10,152 |
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | 0.0% | −0.0% | 0.00 | 0 | — | $10,000 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | 0.0% | −0.0% | 0.00 | 0 | — | $10,000 |
| First-to-Last Day of Month | −0.2% | −22.5% | 0.03 | 67 | 52% | $9,914 |
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | −0.3% | −21.3% | 0.00 | 19 | 26% | $9,822 |
| Buy & hold FXE | −0.7% | −22.9% | -0.05 | — | — | $9,628 |
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for FXE?
Of the 12 templates tested on FXE over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, the strongest by CAGR was trend + trailing stop at 2.5% (max drawdown 7.9%), versus −0.7% for buy-and-hold. Best-in-hindsight is not a forecast — check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding FXE?
12 of 12 templates beat FXE buy-and-hold (−0.7% CAGR) on this window; 12 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (22.9%).
Other currency etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.