SPY trading strategies, backtested
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — the most-traded S&P 500 ETF and the default benchmark for US large caps. Every DeployQuant template run on SPY over 5.5 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | 14.0% | −24.4% | 1.01 | 80 | 30% | $20,663 |
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | 13.3% | −12.6% | 1.21 | 164 | 71% | $19,995 |
| First-to-Last Day of Month | 12.2% | −22.4% | 0.84 | 67 | 67% | $18,917 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | 10.9% | −11.6% | 1.04 | 16 | 56% | $17,739 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | 8.7% | −13.2% | 0.88 | 3 | 67% | $15,896 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | 8.4% | −12.5% | 0.83 | 15 | 60% | $15,664 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | 8.4% | −18.2% | 0.74 | 2 | 50% | $15,598 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | 7.9% | −17.9% | 0.80 | 15 | 40% | $15,258 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | 7.8% | −18.6% | 0.82 | 9 | 78% | $15,172 |
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | 5.0% | −31.2% | 0.46 | 3 | 33% | $13,089 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | 4.5% | −17.1% | 0.43 | 13 | 77% | $12,756 |
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | 2.7% | −16.0% | 0.30 | 2 | 100% | $11,597 |
| Buy & hold SPY | 14.4% | −24.0% | 0.93 | — | — | $21,057 |
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for SPY?
Of the 12 templates tested on SPY over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, the strongest by CAGR was weekly 7% target at 14.0% (max drawdown 24.4%), versus 14.4% for buy-and-hold. Best-in-hindsight is not a forecast — check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding SPY?
0 of 12 templates beat SPY buy-and-hold (14.4% CAGR) on this window; 10 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (24.0%).
Other broad index etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.