DeployQuantVOO trading strategies, backtested
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: Vanguard's low-cost S&P 500 tracker. Every DeployQuant template run on VOO over 5.7 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
VOO is Vanguard's S&P 500 tracker. Over the test window, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, it returned 14.4% a year with a 23.6% maximum drawdown when held with a $10,000 start, ending at $21,675. All 12 DeployQuant templates ran on VOO with the same engine and the same dates.
None of the 12 templates beat buy-and-hold on CAGR. The closest was RSI(2) snapback at 14.1% with a 12.6% drawdown, followed by the weekly 7% target at 13.8% and the monthly cycle at 12.8%. Ten of the 12 had a shallower drawdown than holding, and all 12 finished with a positive CAGR.
The headline runs charge no fees and no slippage. The cost runs on the same strategies add 5 and 10 basis points per fill, and the answer changes a lot for the fast strategies. The window is one stretch of 1,444 sessions that contains the 2022 bear market and the April 2025 drop, so it is one path, not a distribution.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | 14.1% | −12.6% | 1.28 | 172 | 72% (+1 open) | $21,300 |
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | 13.8% | −24.3% | 1.00 | 83 | 30% (+1 open) | $20,953 |
| First-to-Last Day of Month | 12.8% | −22.4% | 0.88 | 69 | 70% (+1 open) | $19,996 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | 10.3% | −11.8% | 0.99 | 19 | 58% (+1 open) | $17,591 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | 9.2% | −13.2% | 0.91 | 3 | 67% (+1 open) | $16,567 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | 8.8% | −18.1% | 0.77 | 2 | 50% (+1 open) | $16,201 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | 8.4% | −17.9% | 0.84 | 15 | 40% (+1 open) | $15,902 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | 8.3% | −18.4% | 0.86 | 9 | 78% (+1 open) | $15,762 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | 8.0% | −12.7% | 0.79 | 17 | 59% (+1 open) | $15,529 |
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | 5.7% | −31.2% | 0.51 | 3 | 33% (+1 open) | $13,717 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | 4.2% | −17.3% | 0.41 | 13 | 77% | $12,682 |
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | 2.6% | −15.8% | 0.30 | 2 | 100% | $11,598 |
| Buy & hold VOO | 14.4% | −23.6% | 0.95 | – | – | $21,675 |
Ranking the 12 templates against holding VOO
Buy-and-hold had a Sharpe of 0.95 and a CAGR of 14.42%. Only one template had a higher Sharpe: RSI(2) snapback at 1.28. The weekly 7% target came out at 1.00, which is close to holding in risk-adjusted terms, though its drawdown of 24.3% matched the market's.
RSI(2) snapback buys when the 2-day RSI falls under 10 and sells when it rises above 70. It made 172 round trips, won 72% of them, and spent 36.0% of the time invested. It returned 14.08% and its worst drawdown was 12.64%, roughly half the depth of holding. Its yearly numbers show where the difference came from. In 2022 it lost 2.5% while VOO fell 17.5% held, and in 2021 it made 30.3% against 29.2%. In 2023 it made 9.0% against 25.2% for holding, the biggest yearly shortfall of its run, and in 2024 and 2025 it trailed by 1.0 and 2.1 points.
The weekly 7% target spent 87.5% of the time invested and won only 30% of its 83 round trips. Its average win was 7.09% and its average loss was 1.62%, so a few large winners paid for many small losers. It gained 33.5% in 2024 and 26.2% in 2025, ahead of holding in both, but it lost 16.6% in 2022 and 10.6 points behind in 2021. Its drawdown of 24.30% ran from 2022-01-03 to 2022-06-16 and took until 2024-01-25 to recover.
The monthly cycle buys on the first trading day of a month and sells on the last. It was invested 95.2% of the time, won 70% of its 69 round trips, and returned 12.83%. Its worst month was June 2022 at negative 8.8%. Its yearly results were 26.6% in 2021, negative 19.8% in 2022, 22.4% in 2023, 25.1% in 2024, 18.4% in 2025 and 10.4% in 2026. That tracks holding closely, ahead by 1.0 and 1.1 points in 2024 and 2025 and behind in the other four years.
The trend templates were in the middle. EMA 12/26 returned 10.34% with an 11.76% drawdown, the shallowest of any template apart from the RSI(2) snapback at 12.64%, and it had a profit factor of 5.15. The 200-day regime filter returned 8.41% and the golden cross 8.77% with only 2 round trips. 3-month momentum returned 8.25% with a 78% win rate on 9 round trips. SMA 10/50 returned 7.97%.
At the bottom were the trend plus trailing stop template at 5.66% with a 31.18% drawdown, RSI(14) mean reversion at 4.22%, and the dip buyer at 2.62%. The dip buyer made 2 trades, both exits at its 8% target, and was invested 22.8% of the time. A 100% win rate on 2 trades says little. The trend plus trailing stop template had its worst year in 2022 at negative 29.8%, worse than holding. Its two closed trades that year lost 8.74% and 14.38%.
The pattern is the same for every template. Rules that sit out part of the time cut the drawdown, and in a window where VOO rose in every calendar year except 2022, the time out cost more return than it saved. The templates that lost the least to holding were the ones that stayed invested most of the time or traded often enough to catch the rebounds.
How each strategy traded VOO
| Strategy | Time in market | Avg hold (days) | Best trade | Worst trade | Profit factor | With 10 bps slippage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(2) snapback | 36.0% | 4 | 9.2% | −6.3% | 2.25 | 7.6% |
| weekly 7% target | 87.5% | 21 | 7.9% | −6.9% | 1.98 | 12.3% |
| monthly cycle | 95.2% | 28 | 9.1% | −9.0% | 1.99 | 10.1% |
| EMA 12/26 trend | 71.3% | 78 | 20.3% | −3.5% | 5.15 | 9.5% |
| momentum breakout | 64.6% | 281 | 23.4% | −8.1% | 3.44 | 9.1% |
| golden cross | 67.7% | 480 | 35.2% | −3.0% | 11.24 | 8.7% |
| 200-day regime filter | 67.2% | 82 | 33.5% | −3.6% | 3.54 | 7.8% |
| 3-month momentum | 65.7% | 137 | 26.4% | −7.6% | 5.05 | 8.0% |
| SMA 10/50 trend | 69.5% | 83 | 18.9% | −5.8% | 4.09 | 7.2% |
| trend + trailing stop | 75.9% | 362 | 32.1% | −14.4% | 1.13 | 5.6% |
| RSI mean reversion | 26.7% | 43 | 8.5% | −8.3% | 2.56 | 3.7% |
| dip buyer | 22.8% | 239 | 8.0% | 8.0% | – | 2.6% |
How each template traded VOO
Trade counts run from 2 on the dip buyer and the golden cross to 172 on RSI(2) snapback. The long-hold templates carry a lot of weight on single trades. The golden cross made one closed round trip that won 35.18%, entering 2023-01-27 at an adjusted 353.01 and exiting 2025-04-17 at 477.21 after 811 days. Its only other closed trade lost 2.99%. That one trade is most of its result, and a different entry date would change the answer a great deal.
The same shows up in the momentum template. 20-day momentum with a trailing stop made 3 round trips and still holds an open position from 2025-05-06 at 504.25, up 40.3% at the end of the window. Its best closed trade was 23.44% over 472 days. It closed 2022-08-11 to 2022-09-06 at a loss of 8.13%, its worst.
Profit factor shows how uneven the trades were. The golden cross had 11.24, EMA 12/26 had 5.15, 3-month momentum 5.05, and SMA 10/50 had 4.09. The faster templates had lower values: RSI(2) snapback 2.25, monthly cycle 1.99 and weekly 7% target 1.98. The trend templates made big wins and small losses, and the short-horizon templates made small wins and frequent losses of similar size. RSI(2) snapback had an average win of 1.17% and an average loss of 1.35%, and it still returned 14.08% because 72% of its trades won.
The costs matter most for that group. With 10 basis points per fill, RSI(2) snapback fell from 14.08% to 7.58% and its drawdown rose to 16.11%. At 5 basis points it made 10.74%. This is the largest drop of any template, because it made 345 fills. The weekly 7% target went from 13.75% to 12.28%, and the monthly cycle from 12.83% to 10.06%. Slow templates barely moved: the golden cross went from 8.77% to 8.71%, and the dip buyer stayed at 2.62%. At 10 basis points the weekly 7% target at 12.28% sat clearly first, and RSI(2) snapback at 7.58% sat below the 200-day filter at 7.78% and just above SMA 10/50 at 7.24%.
VOO traded an average daily dollar volume of $2,275,550,121 in the data. The cost runs use a flat charge per fill, not a spread model, so they show the sensitivity and nothing more precise.
Time in market also differs a lot. The monthly cycle was invested 95.2% of the time and the weekly target 87.5%. These two behave like holding with short interruptions, and they ended near the holding result. The RSI templates were invested 36.0% and 26.7% of the time. A strategy that is in the market a quarter of the time and returns 4.22% is earning a high return per day invested, but it leaves the rest of the capital idle in this test.
Hold times tell a related story. Average holds ranged from 4 days for RSI(2) snapback to 480 days for the golden cross. The trailing-stop template averaged 362 days. A strategy with 480-day holds cannot adapt to the next regime for a year or more, which is what happened in 2025 when the golden cross returned only 0.4% against 17.3% for holding.
Long holds and the April 2025 drop
Four templates produced most of their return from one or two very long positions. Golden cross made 2 round trips: a loss of 2.99% over 149 days from 2021-10-19, and a gain of 35.18% over 811 days from 2023-01-27 to 2025-04-17. The 200-day regime filter held 495 days from 2023-11-02 for 33.53%. The trend plus trailing stop rule held 855 days from 2022-12-01 for 32.11%, and the momentum breakout held 472 days from 2023-11-27 for 23.44%. A 3-trade or 2-trade record cannot tell a skill from a lucky entry, and the page's win rates of 50% and 67% for these rules rest on that few observations.
The April 2025 drop shows how the exits differed. VOO's second drawdown, 18.24%, ran from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08. The monthly cycle's matching drawdown was 20.5% over the same dates, deeper than holding, because it was fully invested in March. Golden cross had 18.06% from the same peak and did not recover until 2026-04-17. The RSI(2) snapback had its best trade of the whole run in that week: 9.16% over 3 days, from 2025-04-07 to 2025-04-10. Its worst, a loss of 6.31% over 22 days from 2025-02-24, came just before it. The rule was buying oversold readings through the whole decline.
The 2022 drawdown had a different shape. Holding fell 23.65% from 2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12 and took until 2023-12-13 to recover. The trend plus trailing stop rule lost 29.8% in calendar 2022 and had a 31.18% drawdown, deeper than holding. Its worst trade was 14.38% over 37 days from 2022-08-17. The stop sits below the high-water mark, so a rule that is still holding after a year of decline has a wide stop and a large loss before it triggers.
The open positions at the end of the window differ as well. Trend plus trailing stop was still long from 2025-05-13 with a gain of 34.35%, momentum breakout from 2025-05-06 at 40.3%, and golden cross from 2025-06-30 at 26.49%. Those gains are included in the final values but are not closed trades.
How VOO behaved
| Measure | VOO |
|---|---|
| Data in this test | 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 (1444 sessions) |
| Total return, buy and hold | 126.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 16.4% |
| Deepest drawdown | −24.5% (2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12) |
| Up days | 54.4% |
| Average daily range | 1.14% |
| Average overnight gap | 0.44% |
| Correlation to SPY | 1.00 |
| Correlation to QQQ | 0.94 |
| Correlation to TLT | 0.08 |
| Sessions above the 200-day average | 78.0% |
| Crossings of the 200-day average | 30 |
| Falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high | 11 |
Calendar years
| Year | Return |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 30.6% |
| 2022 | −18.2% |
| 2023 | 26.3% |
| 2024 | 25.0% |
| 2025 | 17.8% |
| 2026 (part) | 13.8% |
Biggest single days
| Best day | Move |
|---|---|
| 2025-04-09 | 9.4% |
| 2022-11-10 | 5.5% |
| 2025-05-12 | 3.3% |
| 2022-06-24 | 3.2% |
| 2022-10-04 | 3.1% |
| Worst day | Move |
|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | −6.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | −4.8% |
| 2022-09-13 | −4.3% |
| 2022-05-18 | −4.0% |
| 2022-06-13 | −3.8% |
Average return by calendar month
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% | −2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
Most and least correlated funds
| Most correlated | Least correlated | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 1.00 | SDS | -1.00 |
| SSO | 1.00 | SH | -1.00 |
| VV | 1.00 | SPDN | -1.00 |
| SPUU | 0.99 | SQQQ | -0.94 |
| IOO | 0.96 | QID | -0.94 |
How VOO behaved in this window
VOO is the same index as SPY and the correlation to SPY is 1.00 in the data. Its correlation to QQQ was 0.94 and to TLT 0.08. The most correlated funds were SPY, SSO, VV, SPUU and IOO, and the least correlated were the inverse funds SDS, SH and SPDN at negative 1.00. The closest fund-for-fund comparisons are VV, at 14.26% held, and VOOG, at 15.73%.
Annualized volatility was 16.43% and the fund rose on 54.4% of days. The average up day was 0.74% and the average down day was negative 0.74%, so the symmetry of the typical day was exact. The edge was in how often it went up. The average intraday range was 1.14% and the average overnight gap was 0.44%. Of the fund's total log return, 63.83% came overnight and 36.17% during the session. For rules that act at the open, that overnight share is part of the return they capture or miss.
The calendar years were 30.57% in 2021, negative 18.17% in 2022, 26.31% in 2023, 24.99% in 2024, 17.80% in 2025 and 13.80% in 2026 through 2026-10-02. Four years returned more than 17%, and one lost more than 18%. The templates that cut 2022 losses are the ones that look best in that year: RSI(2) snapback lost 2.5%, EMA 12/26 lost 8.3% and SMA 10/50 lost 10.0%.
The deepest fall was 24.52% from 2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12, with recovery on 2023-12-13. The drawdown lasted 488 sessions. Buy-and-hold's drawdown list has two more events: 18.24% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08, which recovered by 2025-06-26, and 8.70% in early 2026. The 2022 episode took 427 days to recover from the low, and the April 2025 episode took 79.
The biggest days cluster in the stress periods. The best day was 2025-04-09 at 9.42%, the day after the 2025 trough on 2025-04-08. The worst were 2025-04-04 at negative 5.97% and 2025-04-03 at negative 4.77%. All five of the worst days came in 2022 or April 2025, and all five of the best came in 2022 or spring 2025. A strategy that was out of the market on 2025-04-09 gave up 9.42% in one session.
Average monthly returns were strongest in November at 4.02%, July at 3.08% and May at 3.00%, and weakest in September at negative 2.21%. With 5 or 6 observations per month, these averages describe this window and are not stable seasonal facts. They explain why the monthly cycle's worst months were June 2022 and why SMA 10/50's best month was November 2022 at 7.81%.
On the signals the templates use: VOO spent 77.99% of sessions above its 200-day average and crossed it 30 times. That is why the 200-day filter and the golden cross were invested about two-thirds of the time. The RSI(14) fell under 30 in only 19 sessions, with a median 5-day forward return of 3.57% and a 20-day return of 1.72%, against baseline medians of 0.42% and 1.73%. The 20-day figure matches the baseline, so waiting for RSI(14) under 30 gave little extra over 20 days. RSI(2) under 10 appeared in 146 sessions, with a median 5-day forward return of 0.89% and a 20-day return of 2.27%, which is above the baseline at both horizons. The first-lag daily autocorrelation was negative 0.02, almost zero, so a day's move did not predict the next day's.
There were 11 falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high, totaling 23 days. The dip buyer is the template built around that kind of fall, and it made 2 trades.
Limits: one window of 5.74 years, no fees in the headline runs, daily decisions, and no margin. The templates were not tuned for VOO. They are the same rules run on every fund in the set.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.7 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for VOO?
Of the 12 templates tested on VOO over 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, the strongest by CAGR was RSI(2) snapback at 14.1% (max drawdown 12.6%), versus 14.4% for buy-and-hold. The best result in hindsight is not a forecast. Check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding VOO?
0 of 12 templates beat VOO buy-and-hold (14.4% CAGR) on this window; 10 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (23.6%).
What was the best strategy for VOO?
By CAGR, [RSI(2) snapback](/learn/strategies/rsi2-dip-snapback/voo/) at 14.08% with a 12.64% drawdown, against 14.42% for holding. With 10 basis points of slippage it fell to 7.58%, and the [weekly 7% target](/learn/strategies/weekly-profit-target/voo/) at 12.28% was ahead. This is hindsight on one window.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding VOO?
None of the 12 beat holding on CAGR. Ten of the 12 had a shallower drawdown than the 23.65% for holding, and only the weekly 7% target at 24.3% and the trailing-stop template at 31.18% had deeper ones.
How much did VOO fall in 2022?
VOO returned negative 18.17% in calendar 2022 and fell 24.52% from 2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12. It took until 2023-12-13 to recover the peak, 488 sessions in total.
Is VOO different from SPY in these tests?
The data shows a correlation of 1.00. Holding returned 14.42% for VOO and 14.56% for SPY, a small gap. Differences of that size come from fund-level details. See the [SPY page](/learn/etf/spy/).
Does slippage change the ranking on VOO?
It changes the order for the fast templates. RSI(2) snapback made 345 fills and dropped from 14.08% to 7.58% at 10 basis points. The golden cross made 5 fills and moved from 8.77% to 8.71%.
How often is VOO above its 200-day average?
In this window VOO was above its 200-day average in 77.99% of sessions and crossed it 30 times. The [200-day regime filter](/learn/strategies/sma200-regime/voo/) was invested 67.2% of the time and returned 8.41%.
What is the worst day for VOO in the test?
The worst day was 2025-04-04 at negative 5.97%, followed by 2025-04-03 at negative 4.77%. The best day was 2025-04-09 at 9.42%.
Other broad index etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.