DeployQuantWeekly Entry + 7% Target on VOO
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: Vanguard's low-cost S&P 500 tracker. Backtest 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, computed by the same engine that runs live DeployQuant strategies.
Only 25 of the 83 closed trades on VOO won, and the account still grew from $10,000 to $20,953. The weekly 7% target buys VOO, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, at the first open of a week, rests a limit order 7% above the entry, and sells a losing position on Thursday at 2:00pm. From 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 that produced a CAGR of 13.75%, a maximum drawdown of 24.3% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.0. The win rate was 30%, the profit factor 1.98, and the account was invested for 87.5% of sessions.
The arithmetic of that result is in the trade sizes. The average win was 7.09%, which is the target, and the average loss was 1.62%. A loser is cut at the Thursday check and a winner is held until the target fills. A win rate of 30% can pay for the losers when each win is several times the size of a loss.
Buy-and-hold on VOO ended at $21,675, a CAGR of 14.42% with a drawdown of 23.65% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.95. The strategy finished $722 behind, 0.67 points of CAGR a year slower, with a drawdown 0.65 points deeper. The Sharpe ratio was a little higher for the strategy, 1.0 against 0.95. In effect the rule tracked the index at a small discount over five and a half years.
The template ranked 2nd of 12 on VOO. Only the RSI(2) snapback was higher, at 14.08% with a 12.64% drawdown. VOO ranked 18th of 59 funds for this strategy. The rules are on the weekly 7% target page and the fund is on the VOO page.
Year by year
| Year | weekly 7% target | buy & hold |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18.6% | 29.2% |
| 2022 | −16.6% | −17.5% |
| 2023 | 18.7% | 25.2% |
| 2024 | 33.5% | 24.1% |
| 2025 | 26.2% | 17.3% |
| 2026 | 7.7% | 13.5% |
Three years ahead of the index and three behind
The strategy returned 18.6% in 2021, -16.6% in 2022, 18.7% in 2023, 33.5% in 2024, 26.2% in 2025 and 7.7% so far in 2026. Holding the fund gave 29.2%, -17.5%, 25.2%, 24.1%, 17.3% and 13.5%, so the gaps run -10.6, 0.9, -6.5, 9.4, 8.9 and -5.8 points, in the rule's favour only in 2022, 2024 and 2025.
2021 was the widest miss. The index rose in most months and the rule carried 10 closed trades through the year with only 3 wins. The first trade shows the mechanism: bought 2021-01-04 at $318.29 and sold 2021-03-04 at $315.54, a loss of 0.86% after 59 days. Any position in profit at the Thursday check stays open, and this one was held for weeks before it turned into a loser and was sold at the next Thursday check. Meanwhile the fund compounded. The rule's 18.6% for the year came from monthly returns such as 4.83% in April, 5.82% in October and 4.85% in December, and it lost 3.9% in September and 2.77% in November.
2022 was a small win for the rule. The fund fell 17.5% and the rule 16.6%, a 0.9 point edge. The year contained 24 closed trades and only 5 wins, the most trades and the lowest win rate of any year. The strategy lost 7.15% in January, 4.19% in February, 3.74% in April, 3.47% in May and 9.85% in June, then made 9.49% in July, the best month of the test. The Thursday exit did not protect against a market that fell steadily, since each new Monday brought a fresh entry.
2023 was behind by 6.5 points, with 14 trades and 3 wins. The rule made 7.45% in June and 7.79% in November, and lost 4.45% in September and 2.72% in October. The fund rose steadily through the year and the rule's many small exits cost it part of that.
2024 and 2025 are where the rule did best. In 2024, 6 of 13 trades won, and the strategy returned 33.5% against 24.1%. In 2025 it won 6 of 15 and returned 26.2% against 17.3%. Both years contain a sharp fall followed by a fast recovery, and the rule's wins of about 7% came inside that rebound. 2026 so far shows 2 wins in 7 trades and 7.7% against 13.5%.
Month by month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 4.8% | −1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | −3.9% | 5.8% | −2.8% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | −7.2% | −4.2% | 3.5% | −3.7% | −3.5% | −9.8% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4.4% | 6.8% | 2.9% | −5.1% |
| 2023 | 1.9% | −2.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | −1.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | −1.6% | −4.5% | −2.7% | 7.8% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | 0.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | −3.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 7.3% | 3.1% | −1.1% | 5.2% | −2.3% |
| 2025 | 4.7% | −1.3% | −7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | −1.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026 | 1.4% | −0.8% | −4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | −1.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | −0.4% | 0.9% | – | – |
Two worst months, one best, and a clear pattern
The best month was July 2022 at 9.49% and the worst was June 2022 at -9.85%. Buy-and-hold's best was April 2026 at 10.23% and its worst September 2022 at -8.84%. The two months at the extremes for the strategy are adjacent, which fits a rule that re-enters every week and so holds through both the fall and the bounce.
The losing months cluster. January and February 2022 lost 7.15% and 4.19%, April to June 2022 lost 3.74%, 3.47% and 9.85%, and September 2022 lost 4.42%. December 2022 lost 5.14%. March 2025 lost 7.14%, March 2026 lost 4.06%, and September to October 2023 lost 4.45% and 2.72%. Each of those months lost money for the strategy.
Strong months run in streaks as well. February to March 2024 gained 5% and 4.45%, April to September 2025 was a series of gains from 5.99% in April through 5.66% in May, 5.74% in June, 2.15%, 2.88% and 3.39%, and October 2025 added 3.27%. A rule that holds its winners can pile up several months of gains when the fund trends upward.
The calendar-month averages for VOO show where the index itself was strongest: November 4.02%, July 3.08% and May 3%, against September at -2.21%. Each is an average of 5 or 6 observations. The strategy's own September record is mixed, with -3.9% in 2021 and -4.42% in 2022 and -4.45% in 2023, followed by 3.15% in 2024 and 3.39% in 2025.
Every trade
weekly 7% target on VOO made 83 closed round trips and one position still open at the end of the test, an average hold of 21 days, an average winner of 7.09%, an average loser of −1.62%, a profit factor of 1.98, a longest losing streak of 7. It held a position at the close on 87.5% of trading days.
Best 10 round trips
| Entry | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Return | Days held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-30 | $365.90 | 2023-11-14 | $394.74 | 7.9% | 15 |
| 2024-08-05 | $456.90 | 2024-08-15 | $491.56 | 7.6% | 10 |
| 2025-04-21 | $471.02 | 2025-05-01 | $506.25 | 7.5% | 10 |
| 2024-04-22 | $443.61 | 2024-05-23 | $475.10 | 7.1% | 31 |
| 2024-09-09 | $487.01 | 2024-10-14 | $521.56 | 7.1% | 35 |
| 2021-03-08 | $326.14 | 2021-04-09 | $348.97 | 7.0% | 32 |
| 2021-05-24 | $355.21 | 2021-08-12 | $380.07 | 7.0% | 80 |
| 2021-10-04 | $371.12 | 2021-11-03 | $397.10 | 7.0% | 30 |
| 2022-03-14 | $362.54 | 2022-03-22 | $387.92 | 7.0% | 8 |
| 2022-06-21 | $322.39 | 2022-07-21 | $344.96 | 7.0% | 30 |
Worst 10 round trips
| Entry | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Return | Days held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-23 | $339.07 | 2022-06-16 | $315.64 | −6.9% | 24 |
| 2022-05-02 | $356.15 | 2022-05-12 | $333.97 | −6.2% | 10 |
| 2021-12-06 | $391.30 | 2022-01-27 | $371.58 | −5.0% | 52 |
| 2025-03-03 | $536.62 | 2025-03-06 | $515.23 | −4.0% | 3 |
| 2022-10-31 | $336.35 | 2022-11-03 | $323.89 | −3.7% | 3 |
| 2025-04-14 | $490.94 | 2025-04-16 | $473.49 | −3.5% | 2 |
| 2025-03-17 | $506.50 | 2025-04-03 | $489.46 | −3.4% | 17 |
| 2023-10-09 | $378.25 | 2023-10-26 | $365.82 | −3.3% | 17 |
| 2025-03-10 | $511.74 | 2025-03-13 | $495.26 | −3.2% | 3 |
| 2022-02-22 | $371.98 | 2022-02-24 | $360.42 | −3.1% | 2 |
Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they sit below the quotes printed at the time. An open position is marked at the last close.
Eighty-four trades, one open
The trade list has 84 rows: 83 closed and one open. The open one was entered on 2026-09-14 at $695.63 and was marked at +1.7% on the last day. The first was bought on 2021-01-04 at $318.29. The fills total 167, two for each closed trade and one for the open entry.
The five best trades are 7.88% (2023-10-30 to 2023-11-14, 15 days), 7.59% (2024-08-05 to 2024-08-15, 10 days), 7.48% (2025-04-21 to 2025-05-01, 10 days), 7.1% (2024-04-22 to 2024-05-23, 31 days) and 7.09% (2024-09-09 to 2024-10-14, 35 days). Each is a target fill, and each lands a little over 7%. Three of the five came in 2024, and one in the rebound after the April 2025 low.
The five worst are -6.91% (2022-05-23 to 2022-06-16, 24 days), -6.23% (2022-05-02 to 2022-05-12, 10 days), -5.04% (2021-12-06 to 2022-01-27, 52 days), -3.99% (2025-03-03 to 2025-03-06, 3 days) and -3.7% (2022-10-31 to 2022-11-03, 3 days). The two worst losses are both from May 2022. The third lasted 52 days, which fits a position that was in profit at a Thursday check and was then held through a decline.
The median trade lost 0.56% and half of all holds ended within 10 days, but the mean hold was 20.8 days, the longest 115 and the shortest 0. A median trade that loses and an average that wins is the profile of a skewed rule. Three wins in a row was the best streak, and seven losses in a row the worst. By year of exit, wins and trades were 3 and 10 in 2021, 5 and 24 in 2022, 3 and 14 in 2023, 6 and 13 in 2024, 6 and 15 in 2025, and 2 and 7 in 2026.
Largest drawdowns
| Peak | Low point | Depth | Days to low | Recovered | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-03 | 2022-06-16 | −24.3% | 164 | 2024-01-25 | 588 |
| 2025-02-19 | 2025-04-03 | −12.7% | 43 | 2025-05-13 | 40 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2026-03-30 | −7.8% | 62 | 2026-05-01 | 32 |
Buy-and-hold's deepest drawdown ran from 2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12 and reached −23.6%.
Drawdowns against a fund that fell harder, and then less
The deepest strategy drawdown was 24.3%, from a peak on 2022-01-03 to a low on 2022-06-16, 164 days later. It recovered on 2024-01-25, 588 days after the low. Buy-and-hold's was 23.65% over the same peak, with a low on 2022-10-12 after 282 days and a recovery on 2023-12-13 after 427 days. The strategy's low came months before the fund's, and its recovery came after the fund's.
The second strategy drawdown was 12.65%, from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-03, recovered on 2025-05-13. The fund's from the same peak was 18.24%, with a low on 2025-04-08 and recovery on 2025-06-26. This is where the rule helped: it sold losing positions at its Thursday checks during the fall. The third was 7.83%, from 2026-01-27 to 2026-03-30, recovered on 2026-05-01, against the fund's 8.7% over the same dates, recovered on 2026-04-14.
The maximum drawdown is 0.65 points deeper than the fund's, which reads as a tie, and the second and third drawdowns were shallower. A 2022 decline that lasted most of the year gave the rule repeated entries into a falling market. A fast decline in 2025 gave it exits before the low. The two cases show the rule's profile: it handles sharp drops better than slow ones.
The Sharpe ratio is 1.0 for the strategy and 0.95 for the fund. A slightly better Sharpe ratio from a slightly lower return implies less volatility, and it matches the shallower second and third drawdowns. The page does not report the strategy's own volatility.
With trading costs
The headline run fills at the bar price. These runs charge slippage on every fill.
| Slippage per fill | CAGR | Max drawdown | Final value | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None (headline) | 13.8% | −24.3% | $20,953 | 1.00 |
| 5 basis points | 12.9% | −24.8% | $20,081 | 0.95 |
| 10 basis points | 12.3% | −22.0% | $19,441 | 0.91 |
167 fills and a drawdown that moved the wrong way
At 5 basis points of slippage per fill the CAGR is 12.91%, the end equity $20,081.24 and the Sharpe ratio 0.951. At 10 basis points the CAGR is 12.28%, the end equity $19,441.26 and the Sharpe ratio 0.907. The headline CAGR of 13.75% falls below the fund's 14.42% at either level.
The maximum drawdown does not behave in order: 24.3% in the headline run, 24.79% at 5 basis points and 21.99% at 10. With a charge on each fill the entry prices shift slightly, and a path-dependent rule can enter and exit on different weeks. The 10 basis point drawdown is better than the headline, and the better figure is a feature of that path and not of the cost. Read the return and the Sharpe ratio, which fall in order, and treat the drawdown column as noise.
VOO traded an average of $2,275,550,121 a day with a median of 7,551 shares a minute. A $10,000 sleeve is small against that. The cost runs charge one fixed rate on every fund, and the headline run charges none. Real spreads on VOO were not measured.
The cost of 167 fills is larger than for a monthly or yearly rule on the same fund, and it is the price of re-entering each week.
Changing the parameters
| Version | CAGR | Max drawdown | Round trips | Win rate | Final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published rules | 13.8% | −24.3% | 83 | 30% | $20,953 |
| 5% target | 16.4% | −14.4% | 113 | 35% | $23,907 |
| 10% target | 13.8% | −25.9% | 62 | 24% | $21,035 |
| 15% target | 15.4% | −25.9% | 42 | 24% | $22,818 |
A lower target did better, but not in a straight line
Each variant moves only the profit target. At 5% the CAGR was 16.39%, a drawdown of 14.37%, end equity of $23,906.97 and a Sharpe ratio of 1.183, with 113 trades and 40 wins. At 10% the figures were 13.83%, 25.85%, $21,035.22 and 0.966, with 62 trades and 15 wins. At 15% they were 15.45%, 25.86%, $22,817.63 and 1.044, with 42 trades and 10 wins.
The 5% target returned more than the published 7%, and more than buy-and-hold's 14.42%, with a drawdown of 14.37%, the shallowest of any run on this page. It won 40 of 113 trades, and a target that close fills more often and sooner. The 10% target was close to the 7% version on return and slightly worse on drawdown. The 15% target beat the 10% one with only 10 wins in 42 trades.
The ordering on CAGR is 5%, then 15%, then 10%, then the published 7%. A rule with a clear optimum would show a hill, and this shows a zigzag. With 62 to 113 trades per variant, one outsized trade can move the ranking, and a wide target depends on a handful of large wins. The 5% result is the strongest on every column, and it is also the one most likely to have been shaped by the window: 2024 and 2025 had the highest yearly win counts, and a window without those years could rank the variants differently.
The lesson that holds up is about structure. A closer target turned more trades into wins and shortened holds. A farther target waited for rarer wins. The published 7% setting finished last of the four on return.
How VOO behaved
| Measure | VOO |
|---|---|
| Data in this test | 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 (1444 sessions) |
| Total return, buy and hold | 126.1% |
| Annualized volatility | 16.4% |
| Deepest drawdown | −24.5% (2022-01-03 to 2022-10-12) |
| Up days | 54.4% |
| Average daily range | 1.14% |
| Average overnight gap | 0.44% |
| Correlation to SPY | 1.00 |
| Correlation to QQQ | 0.94 |
| Correlation to TLT | 0.08 |
| Sessions above the 200-day average | 78.0% |
| Crossings of the 200-day average | 30 |
| Falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high | 11 |
What VOO did in this window
Held alone, VOO gained 126.13% across 1444 sessions, 15.27% a year, at annualized volatility of 16.43%. By calendar year it ran 30.57%, -18.17%, 26.31%, 24.99%, 17.8% and, for 2026 to date, 13.8%. Its single worst decline was -24.52%, from the 2022-01-03 high to the 2022-10-12 low, regained on 2023-12-13 after a drawdown that spanned 488 sessions.
Up days were 54.4% of the total, and the typical up or down day moved 0.74% with an intraday range of 1.14%. Price held above the 200-day average for 77.99% of sessions, with 30 crossings. The largest gains came on 2025-04-09 (9.42%), 2022-11-10 (5.49%), 2025-05-12 (3.28%), 2022-06-24 (3.16%) and 2022-10-04 (3.1%). The largest losses came on 2025-04-04 (-5.97%), 2025-04-03 (-4.77%), 2022-09-13 (-4.34%), 2022-05-18 (-3.97%) and 2022-06-13 (-3.8%).
A fund that moves 0.74% on a typical day needs time to reach 7%. That is why the target filled only 25 times in 83 trades and why holds ran long when it did. A 7% gain is several times the daily range, and it usually takes weeks of drift. The weekly name is about the entry schedule and not about the length of the trades.
Overnight returns were 63.83% of the total and intraday 36.17%, with log returns of 50.96% and 28.88%. Day-of-week averages are Monday 0.14%, Tuesday 0.01%, Wednesday 0.08%, Thursday 0.02% and Friday 0.06%. The rule buys at Monday's open and checks losers on Thursday. Monday had the highest average day of the five.
After the 19 sessions where RSI(14) closed under 30, the median 5-day return was 3.57% and the 20-day return 1.72%, next to baselines of 0.42% and 1.73%. The 146 sessions with RSI(2) under 10 were followed by 0.89% and 2.27%. Falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high happened 11 times, covering 23 days. Beta and correlation to SPY were both 1. SPY, SSO and VV matched it at 1, SPUU at 0.99 and IOO at 0.96.
The rules
Buy at the first open of each week, rest a +7% profit target, and exit Thursday afternoon if the trade is losing.
- WHEN the first session of the week opens · IF not invested · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve (once per week)
- WHILE invested · a managed limit order rests at entry price × 1.07
- WHEN it's 2:00pm on the week's second-to-last session · IF the position is losing · THEN sell everything
A weekly swing template: enter Monday, aim for +7%, and do not carry a loser into the weekend. The profit target rests at the broker as a real limit order the whole time (DeployQuant maintains it as a managed order). The Thursday-afternoon exit gives losing trades a time deadline instead of a price stop.
Good for: volatile assets that regularly swing 7% within a week, such as leveraged ETFs.
Watch out: the time-based exit realizes many small losses by design. The template needs the +7% winners to outnumber them, which the per-ETF results test directly.
Why a lopsided rule matched the index
Three pieces make up the rule: the Monday entry, the resting 7% limit order and the Thursday check on losers. On a fund with a positive drift, the Monday entry puts money to work almost every week, which is why exposure was 87.5%. The limit order sells winners that reach 7%. The Thursday check removes losers before the weekend.
Here is how the other templates fared on VOO. The RSI(2) snapback made 14.08% with a 12.64% drawdown, against 13.75% and 24.3% for the weekly target. The monthly cycle returned 12.83% with 22.38%, the EMA 12/26 trend 10.34% with 11.76%, and the momentum breakout 9.19% with 13.22%. The golden cross made 8.77%, the 200-day regime filter 8.41%, the 3-month momentum 8.25% and the SMA 10/50 trend 7.97%. The trend plus trailing stop managed 5.66%, with the deepest drawdown of the list at 31.18%, the RSI mean reversion 4.22% and the dip buyer 2.62%. The trend rules gave up return for lower drawdowns. This rule kept return and took the drawdown.
Among broad index funds the weekly target's median CAGR was 13.88%, against 6.61% across all 59 funds. VOOG led at 19.51% with a 17.22% drawdown and 98 trades, QQQM returned 16.64% and QQQ 16.52%. The near twins of VOO were SPY at 13.88%, VV at 14.94% and IOO at 14.9%. All made 82 or 83 round trips. The weakest in the category were VTV at 10.69% and IWM at 6.61% with 144 round trips and a 26.26% drawdown.
The test covers one fund over 5.74 years with daily-decision rules and no fees in the headline run, and it models the limit order as a fill at the target. The profit target is a real resting order in live use, and the test does not measure queue position or partial fills.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.7 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
Did weekly 7% target beat buy-and-hold on VOO?
Over 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, weekly 7% target on VOO returned 13.8% annualized vs 14.4% for buy-and-hold: it trailed buy-and-hold by 0.7% per year, with a maximum drawdown of 24.3% (buy-and-hold: 23.6%).
How many trades did it make?
83 completed round trips over 5.7 years (167 fills), with 30% of round trips closing profitably.
Why exit on Thursday?
It is a time deadline. The template does not hold a losing trade over the weekend gap. On holiday-shortened weeks the exit moves to the week's second-to-last session automatically.
Does the 7% target rest at the broker?
Yes. Deployed live, the target is a real GTC limit order that DeployQuant places and maintains.
Did the weekly 7% target beat buy-and-hold on VOO?
No, it came close. From 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 it returned 13.75% a year and ended at $20,953, against 14.42% and $21,675 for buy-and-hold. It was ahead in 2022, 2024 and 2025.
How many trades did the weekly 7% target make on VOO?
83 closed round trips and one open position bought on 2026-09-14 at $695.63, with 167 fills. Only 25 of the 83 won, a win rate of 30%, but the average win of 7.09% was far larger than the average loss of 1.62%.
Why does a 30% win rate still make money?
Winners are held until the 7% target and losers are sold on Thursday, usually at a small loss. The average win was 7.09% and the average loss 1.62%, which gives a profit factor of 1.98. Each win pays for several losses.
What was the worst trade on VOO?
The trade from 2022-05-23 at $339.07 to 2022-06-16 at $315.64, a loss of 6.91% over 24 days. June 2022 was also the worst month for the strategy, at -9.85%.
Would a 5% profit target have done better?
In this window it did. It returned 16.39% with a 14.37% drawdown and 113 trades, against 13.75% and 24.3% for the 7% target. The 10% and 15% targets returned 13.83% and 15.45%, so the ordering is irregular, and one window cannot settle the best target.
How much do trading costs matter?
With 167 fills, 5 basis points per fill takes the CAGR from 13.75% to 12.91%, and 10 basis points to 12.28%. The rule trades every week, so costs are larger here than for a slow rule on the same fund.
Related
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.