DeployQuant200-Day SMA Regime Filter on IAU
iShares Gold Trust: physical gold exposure, a common crisis hedge. Backtest 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, computed by the same engine that runs live DeployQuant strategies.
The 200-day SMA regime filter owns a fund when yesterday's close is above its 200-day average and holds cash when the close is below. IAU, the iShares Gold Trust, gives the rule physical gold, a common crisis hedge, and a window in which gold went through a long stretch of sideways trading and then a very strong run. From 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 the rule returned 12.98% a year and turned $10,000 into $20,152, a total return of 101.52%. Buy-and-hold on IAU returned 13.66% a year and ended at $20,857.
The rule trailed buy-and-hold by 0.68 points of CAGR, and it was ahead in 2 of 6 calendar years, 2021 and 2026. Its maximum drawdown was 20.02% against 26.16%, and its Sharpe ratio was 0.87 against 0.8. It made 22 round trips and won 5, a win rate of 23%. The profit factor was 8.19 and the fund was held 67.2% of the time. The headline run has no fees or slippage. At 5 basis points the CAGR was 12.55% and at 10 basis points 12.16%.
A win rate of 23% with a CAGR close to buy-and-hold looks odd, and it comes from one trade. A single holding of 937 days made 119.83%. The other 21 round trips lost or gained a few percent at most. On IAU the filter ranked 3rd of 12 templates by CAGR and 9th of the 59 funds for this strategy. Its median CAGR over all 59 funds was 1.84%, and IAU is the only commodity fund in the set, so its category median is its own 12.98%.
Year by year
| Year | 200-day regime filter | buy & hold |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | −1.5% | −6.0% |
| 2022 | −7.1% | −0.6% |
| 2023 | 7.2% | 12.6% |
| 2024 | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| 2025 | 62.8% | 62.9% |
| 2026 | −0.1% | −3.9% |
Year by year against buy-and-hold
The rule made -1.5% in 2021, -7.1% in 2022, 7.2% in 2023, 26.3% in 2024, 62.8% in 2025 and lost 0.1% so far in 2026. Buy-and-hold made -6%, -0.6%, 12.6%, 26.3%, 62.9% and -3.9%. The gaps were 4.5, -6.5, -5.4, 0, -0.1 and 3.8 points.
In 2021 the rule lost 1.5% against a 6% loss for the fund. The monthly table shows 0 from January to September, because the rule had no entry until the first signal. The first entry came on 2021-10-26 at an adjusted price of 34.13 and was sold the next day for -0.03%. Four round trips closed in 2021 and none won, with the largest loss being 1.05% from 2021-10-28.
In 2022 the rule lost 7.1% while the fund lost 0.6%, a gap of 6.5 points in the wrong direction. This was the worst year for the filter. It made 11 round trips and 3 won. Gold moved sideways around its 200-day line for months, and the template's caveat, price whipping around the line and generating clusters of buy and sell pairs, played out in full. The rule bought and sold on 2022-01-11 to 2022-01-28 for -1.09%, entered again on 2022-02-03 and sold the next day, and then held from 2022-02-07 to 2022-05-11 for a gain of 1.81%. After that came 2022-05-12 to 2022-05-13, a one-day trade that lost 2.24%, the worst of the test, and four more short trades through June.
In 2023 the rule made 7.2% against 12.6%. The trade from 2022-12-21 at 34.465 to 2023-08-17 at 36.01 made 4.48% over 239 days. Then the rule had three quick losses in September, -0.06%, -0.05% and -0.93%, and another of -0.89% from 2023-10-19 to 2023-11-13. Five round trips closed in 2023 and only 1 won. The fund finished the year 12.6% higher, and the rule trailed it because its trades after the August sale were short and lost money.
The rule's entry on 2023-11-14 at 37.11 started the trade that made the result. It stayed in until 2026-06-08, at 81.58, a gain of 119.83% over 937 days. In 2024 the rule made 26.3%, the same as buy-and-hold. In 2025 it made 62.8% against 62.9%. The 0.1 point gap in 2025 is small, and the template buys with 98% of the sleeve.
In 2026 so far the rule lost 0.1% against a loss of 3.9% for the fund. The gain of 3.8 points came from the sale on 2026-06-08 at 81.58, after the fund's January peak. The rule re-entered on 2026-08-20 at 84.09 and sold on 2026-08-31 at 83.55 for -0.64%. It was in cash again at the end of the data.
Month by month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −1.4% | −0.6% | 0.6% |
| 2022 | −3.1% | 5.1% | 1.4% | −2.1% | −4.8% | −2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | −0.8% |
| 2023 | 5.6% | −5.2% | 7.8% | 0.9% | −1.3% | −2.2% | 2.3% | −1.9% | −2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 2024 | −1.4% | 0.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | −0.1% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | −3.1% | −1.4% |
| 2025 | 6.6% | 1.9% | 9.2% | 5.4% | −0.1% | 0.4% | −0.6% | 4.9% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| 2026 | 12.4% | 8.4% | −10.9% | −1.5% | −1.5% | −4.5% | 0.0% | −0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | – | – |
The months behind the numbers
The rule's best month was January 2026 at 12.39% and its worst was March 2026 at -10.95%. Buy-and-hold had its best month in January 2026 at 12.4% and its worst in June 2026 at -11.59%. Both best months are the same month, because the rule was fully invested going into 2026.
The monthly table shows two stretches of zeros: January to September 2021, and July to November 2022 when the rule was in cash. In between, the 2022 losses were -3.06% in January, -4.8% in May and -2.71% in June.
From March 2024 the table is a long run of positive months with a few exceptions. March 2024 made 8.5%, April 3.01%, July 5.25%, September 5.01% and October 4.29%. The 2025 months include March at 9.24%, April at 5.38%, September at 11.63% and November at 5.3%. The rule was in the market for all of them, and the trend filter did nothing except keep the position.
The fund's calendar-month averages show how uneven the year was. January averaged 4.39% across the years and October 3.02%, while June averaged -3.72%. June 2026 was the fund's worst month at -11.59%, with the rule's June at -4.55% because it had sold on 2026-06-08.
Reading 2025 and 2026 month by month
The last two years hold the largest months in the record, and they show where the long trade earned and where it gave back. In 2025 the rule made 6.64% in January, 1.9% in February, 9.24% in March and 5.38% in April. May, June and July were flat to slightly negative at -0.05%, 0.37% and -0.55%. Then August made 4.9%, September 11.63%, October 3.56%, November 5.3% and December 2.17%. Every month was positive except May and July, and both of those were within a point of zero.
The October 2025 drawdown of 9.94% fits that table. The peak was 2025-10-20, the day before the fund's -6.17% session on 2025-10-21, and the trough came on 2025-11-04. The rule did not sell, since the close stayed above the 200-day average, and it then made 5.3% in November. A rule that waits for a close under a slow line absorbs a drop of that size and keeps the position, which is why this episode shows up as a short dip in the equity curve and not as a pair of trades.
2026 reversed. January made 12.39% and February 8.41%, then March lost 10.95%, April 1.46%, May 1.51% and June 4.55%. The long trade closed on 2026-06-08 at 81.58, so July shows zero. The 2026-08-20 re-entry at 84.09 lasted 11 days and lost 0.64%, leaving August at -0.63% and September at zero. In three months, January to March, the account went from its best month of the window to its worst, which is the speed at which a 200-day line can lag the price. The fund's own March average of 2.54% was a poor guide to March 2026.
Every trade
200-day regime filter on IAU made 22 closed round trips, an average hold of 65 days, an average winner of 25.34%, an average loser of −0.84%, a profit factor of 8.19, a longest losing streak of 7. It held a position at the close on 67.2% of trading days.
| Entry | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Return | Days held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-26 | $34.13 | 2021-10-27 | $34.12 | −0.0% | 1 |
| 2021-10-28 | $34.42 | 2021-11-01 | $34.06 | −1.1% | 4 |
| 2021-11-05 | $34.27 | 2021-11-24 | $33.91 | −1.0% | 19 |
| 2021-12-17 | $34.36 | 2021-12-21 | $34.12 | −0.7% | 4 |
| 2021-12-23 | $34.34 | 2022-01-07 | $34.09 | −0.7% | 15 |
| 2022-01-11 | $34.30 | 2022-01-28 | $33.92 | −1.1% | 17 |
| 2022-02-03 | $34.25 | 2022-02-04 | $34.23 | −0.1% | 1 |
| 2022-02-07 | $34.51 | 2022-05-11 | $35.13 | 1.8% | 93 |
| 2022-05-12 | $35.06 | 2022-05-13 | $34.27 | −2.2% | 1 |
| 2022-05-20 | $34.95 | 2022-06-01 | $35.07 | 0.3% | 12 |
| 2022-06-02 | $35.36 | 2022-06-07 | $35.08 | −0.8% | 5 |
| 2022-06-08 | $35.22 | 2022-06-14 | $34.55 | −1.9% | 6 |
| 2022-06-17 | $35.09 | 2022-06-21 | $34.86 | −0.7% | 4 |
| 2022-12-02 | $33.87 | 2022-12-05 | $33.96 | 0.3% | 3 |
| 2022-12-14 | $34.34 | 2022-12-16 | $33.84 | −1.5% | 2 |
| 2022-12-21 | $34.47 | 2023-08-17 | $36.01 | 4.5% | 239 |
| 2023-08-24 | $36.27 | 2023-09-13 | $36.25 | −0.1% | 20 |
| 2023-09-18 | $36.49 | 2023-09-22 | $36.47 | −0.1% | 4 |
| 2023-09-25 | $36.42 | 2023-09-26 | $36.08 | −0.9% | 1 |
| 2023-10-19 | $36.94 | 2023-11-13 | $36.61 | −0.9% | 25 |
| 2023-11-14 | $37.11 | 2026-06-08 | $81.58 | 119.8% | 937 |
| 2026-08-20 | $84.09 | 2026-08-31 | $83.55 | −0.6% | 11 |
Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they sit below the quotes printed at the time. An open position is marked at the last close.
One trade and twenty-one others
The rule closed 22 round trips with no position open at the end. The median trade lost 0.66% and the median holding was 6 days, with the longest 937 days and the shortest 1. The average winner made 25.34% and the average loser lost 0.84%. The best trade made 119.83% and the worst lost 2.24%. The longest winning streak was 1 and the longest losing streak was 7.
The 7 losing trades in a row were the first 7 of the test, from 2021-10-26 to 2022-02-04, all of them small. The first winner came on 2022-02-07 and made 1.81%. The 5 winners were 119.83%, 4.48%, 1.81%, 0.33% and 0.27%. The first of those is the 937-day trade. The next largest made 4.48%. Without the long trade, the rule's winners made a few percent in total.
The long trade entered on 2023-11-14 at an adjusted price of 37.11 and sold on 2026-06-08 at 81.58. The holding covered the fund's strongest stretch, including 2025 when it made 62.9%. The filter stayed invested through the 9.94% drawdown from 2025-10-20 to 2025-11-04, which recovered by 2025-12-22. A trend filter earns its keep when a trend lasts that long, and the profit factor of 8.19 reflects this one holding against many small losses. The adjusted prices are lower than the quotes printed at the time.
The other worst trades were short. The worst, from 2022-05-12 at 35.06 to 2022-05-13 at 34.275, lost 2.24% in one day. The second, from 2022-06-08 at 35.215 to 2022-06-14 at 34.555, lost 1.87% in 6 days. The third, from 2022-12-14 to 2022-12-16, lost 1.46% in 2 days, and the fourth, from 2022-01-11 to 2022-01-28, lost 1.09% in 17 days. The fifth lost 1.05% in 4 days in late 2021.
By exit year the closed trades were 4 in 2021 with no wins, 11 in 2022 with 3 wins, 5 in 2023 with 1 win and 2 in 2026 with 1 win. Trades closed in 2024 and 2025: none. The rule held the same position through both years, and that is why the result for those years matches the fund.
The trades show the filter's two modes. In a trending fund it makes one trade and holds. In a fund that chops around its 200-day line, it trades often and loses small amounts each time. In IAU's window both modes occurred in sequence.
Largest drawdowns
| Peak | Low point | Depth | Days to low | Recovered | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | 2026-08-31 | −20.0% | 214 | not yet | – |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-12-22 | −16.4% | 289 | 2024-04-02 | 467 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-11-04 | −9.9% | 15 | 2025-12-22 | 48 |
Buy-and-hold's deepest drawdown ran from 2026-01-29 to 2026-07-16 and reached −26.2%.
Drawdowns
The strategy's largest drawdown was 20.02%, from 2026-01-29 to 2026-08-31, and it has not recovered by the end of the data. It took 214 days to reach the trough. The rule held the position through the fund's peak on 2026-01-29 and sold on 2026-06-08 at 81.58, and the final trade of 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-31 lost 0.64%.
The second was 16.4%, from 2022-03-08 to 2022-12-22, recovering on 2024-04-02. It took 289 days to reach the trough and 467 days to recover. The third was 9.94%, from 2025-10-20 to 2025-11-04, recovered on 2025-12-22 after 15 days down and 48 back.
Buy-and-hold had a maximum drawdown of 26.16%, from 2026-01-29 to 2026-07-16, also unrecovered. It had 20.53% from 2022-03-08 to 2022-09-26, recovered on 2023-12-01, and 13.6% from 2021-01-05 to 2021-03-08, recovered on 2022-03-04. The filter's drawdowns were shallower, though in 2026 it lost less only because it sold in June, while the fund's worst point came on 2026-07-16.
The fund's worst days came in a cluster. It fell 10.09% on 2026-01-30, 6.17% on 2025-10-21, 4.42% on 2026-03-03, 4.36% on 2025-12-29 and 4.15% on 2026-03-19. A rule that decides at the open from yesterday's average cannot respond to a one-day fall of 10.09%, and the 2026 drawdown began there. The best days were 6.23% on 2026-02-03 and 4.13% on 2026-08-05.
With trading costs
The headline run fills at the bar price. These runs charge slippage on every fill.
| Slippage per fill | CAGR | Max drawdown | Final value | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None (headline) | 13.0% | −20.0% | $20,152 | 0.87 |
| 5 basis points | 12.6% | −20.1% | $19,716 | 0.85 |
| 10 basis points | 12.2% | −20.3% | $19,330 | 0.82 |
Costs
At 5 basis points the CAGR fell from 12.98% to 12.55%, the drawdown rose to 20.14%, and the Sharpe ratio was 0.847, ending at $19,716. At 10 basis points the CAGR was 12.16%, the drawdown 20.28%, the Sharpe ratio 0.823 and ending equity $19,330. The rule made 44 fills over 5.7 years, so cost has little to act on. The 22 round trips are mostly small ones, and a cost on each does not change the picture because the profit comes from one trade.
IAU is liquid. Its average daily dollar volume was $383,606,697 and the median minute volume 7,446 shares. The flat cost runs are a reasonable guide for a fund this size, though the real spread is not in the data.
Changing the parameters
| Version | CAGR | Max drawdown | Round trips | Win rate | Final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published rules | 13.0% | −20.0% | 22 | 23% | $20,152 |
| 100-day SMA | 12.9% | −21.3% | 30 | 37% | $20,048 |
| 150-day SMA | 13.0% | −21.1% | 25 | 20% | $20,193 |
| 250-day SMA | 12.6% | −27.6% | 16 | 38% | $19,732 |
Other average lengths
Three windows were tested. A 100-day average returned 12.88% with a drawdown of 21.27%, 30 trades and 11 wins, ending at $20,048. A 150-day average returned 13.02% with 21.1%, 25 trades and 5 wins, ending at $20,193. A 250-day average returned 12.57% with 27.62%, 16 trades and 6 wins, ending at $19,732.
The four results, including the 200-day base at 12.98%, are within half a point of each other on CAGR. The reason is the long trade. Each window found its way into the 2023-2026 trend at a similar point and held it. The windows differ in the whipsaw trades before it, which show up in the trade counts, 30 for the 100-day and 16 for the 250-day, and in the drawdown, which was deepest for the 250-day at 27.62%, because it was slowest to sell.
These variants show that the choice of window was not the driver of the result on this fund. The 100-day window had the most wins, and the 150-day had the highest CAGR with only 5 wins. A single window of 5.7 years cannot rank them.
How IAU behaved
| Measure | IAU |
|---|---|
| Data in this test | 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 (1444 sessions) |
| Total return, buy and hold | 110.3% |
| Annualized volatility | 18.3% |
| Deepest drawdown | −26.4% (2026-01-29 to 2026-07-16) |
| Up days | 53.3% |
| Average daily range | 0.98% |
| Average overnight gap | 0.61% |
| Correlation to SPY | 0.16 |
| Correlation to QQQ | 0.16 |
| Correlation to TLT | 0.21 |
| Sessions above the 200-day average | 78.0% |
| Crossings of the 200-day average | 44 |
| Falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high | 7 |
How IAU behaved
IAU returned 13.82% a year in the profile window, with a total return of 110.28% and annualized volatility of 18.26%. Its maximum drawdown was 26.36%, from 2026-01-29 to 2026-07-16, with no recovery by the end of the data, and the longest drawdown lasted 436 sessions. Calendar returns were -6.12% in 2021, -0.57% in 2022, 12.83% in 2023, 26.84% in 2024, 63.89% in 2025 and -3.96% so far in 2026. It was up on 53.29% of days, with average up and down days of 0.83% each.
The return came from a short stretch. Of the six calendar years, two accounted for the bulk of the gain: 2024 at 26.84% and 2025 at 63.89%. The first two years were negative. A fund like this gives a trend rule little to work with for the first half of the window and then rewards it.
IAU closed above its 200-day average on 77.99% of sessions and crossed that line 44 times. The strategy made 22 round trips and 44 fills. The long stretches above the line were the 937-day trade and the stretch before the 2026 peak.
The fund's correlation with SPY was 0.16 and with QQQ 0.16, with a beta to SPY of 0.18. Correlation with TLT was 0.21. The fund was most correlated with UDN at 0.44 and FXE at 0.4, and least with USDU at -0.44. The overnight log return was 81.29% and the intraday log return -6.66%, an overnight share of 108.93%. The fund's return came from the overnight gap, and the open-to-open fills of the rule hold both parts of the day.
The 14-day RSI fell below 30 on 45 sessions, and the median 20-day return after those readings was 2.8%, against 1.01% for all sessions. That favours dip buying on gold in this window, though the RSI mean reversion template returned only 4.99% on IAU and the RSI(2) snapback 4.74%, because gold's long rise gave a rule that sells at RSI 70 little time invested.
Among the other templates on IAU, the weekly 7% target led at 16.35% with a drawdown of 27.66%, followed by the trend plus trailing stop at 13.09% with 30.44%. The filter was third at 12.98%. The EMA 12/26 trend made 12.5% with the shallowest drawdown among the top rules at 14.97%, the monthly cycle 11.85%, the golden cross 10.79% and the SMA 10/50 trend 10.75%. 3-month momentum made 8.51%, the momentum breakout 7.06% and the dip buyer lost 0.78%.
The rules
Own the asset when price closes above its 200-day average; hold cash when it closes below.
- WHEN the market opens · IF not invested AND yesterday's close > SMA(200) · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve
- WHEN the market opens · IF invested AND yesterday's close < SMA(200) · THEN sell the whole position
One rule and one number. Price above the 200-day moving average has historically coincided with better returns and lower volatility than price below it. This template uses no crossovers and no oscillators, only which side of the long-term average the price is on.
Good for: a first systematic strategy, simple enough to audit every trade.
Watch out: price whips around the 200-day line during volatile bottoms, generating clusters of buy-sell pairs. Some traders add a small buffer band to reduce churn.
How the rule fit the fund
The regime filter did what its page says it does: it kept the drawdown below the fund's, 20.02% against 26.16%, and gave up a little return, 0.68 points of CAGR. On IAU that trade was cheap because the rule was invested through the one trend that mattered.
The whipsaw is the other side. The 2022 stretch cost 7.1% in a year when the fund lost only 0.6%, and the template's note about buffer bands is the relevant remedy that the template does not apply. A small buffer around the 200-day line might have cut the number of 1-day and 2-day trades. The test did not run a buffer, so it cannot say how much it would have helped.
The result depends on one long trade, and a different window with a different entry date could look very different. The test is one fund, one window of 5.7 years, and the headline run has no fees. The figures describe what happened and do not predict what the same rule would do next.
The 2022 chop and what a longer or shorter line did
Eleven of the rule's 22 round trips closed in 2022, and 3 of those won. Their sizes were small: -1.09%, -0.07%, 1.81%, -2.24%, 0.33%, -0.79%, -1.87%, -0.66%, 0.27%, -1.46% and -0.74%, with the 4.48% trade from December 2022 closing in 2023. Gold's price in those trades stayed in a narrow band, between 33.87 and 35.36 at entry, so the 200-day line sat close to the price for most of the year. Each time the close crossed it, the rule traded, and each trade was a coin flip with a small cost attached.
The parameter runs describe the same 2022. The 100-day window made 30 trades, the 150-day 25 and the 250-day 16, against 22 for the 200-day base. Faster lines crossed more often. The 100-day variant had 11 wins in 30 trades and the 150-day had 5 in 25. The result in CAGR was nearly identical, so the extra trades cost little here. Most of them lost 1% or less.
The fund's RSI(2) fell under 10 on 152 sessions, and the median 20-day return after those sessions was 1.59% against a baseline of 1.01%. A trend filter ignores that statistic, and so it did not buy the dips of 2022 that the snapback template tried to trade. Its advantage on this fund was holding one position through the 2024 and 2025 climb without a decision.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.7 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
Did 200-day regime filter beat buy-and-hold on IAU?
Over 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, 200-day regime filter on IAU returned 13.0% annualized vs 13.7% for buy-and-hold: it trailed buy-and-hold by 0.7% per year, with a maximum drawdown 6.1 points shallower than holding (20.0% vs 26.2%).
How many trades did it make?
22 completed round trips over 5.7 years (44 fills), with 23% of round trips closing profitably.
Why the 200-day average specifically?
It approximates a year of trading days and has been studied across decades of data. It is not the best window for every asset. The per-ETF backtests here show where it helped and where it didn't.
How did the 200-day regime filter do on IAU?
It returned 12.98% a year from 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 and turned $10,000 into $20,152. The maximum drawdown was 20.02% and the Sharpe ratio 0.87. Buy-and-hold returned 13.66% a year and ended at $20,857.
Why was the win rate only 23%?
The rule closed 22 round trips and won 5. Most of its trades were short whipsaws around the 200-day line that lost a few tenths of a percent to 2.24%. One trade, from 2023-11-14 to 2026-06-08, made 119.83% and produced most of the profit.
Did the filter reduce drawdown on IAU?
Yes. The maximum drawdown was 20.02% against 26.16% for buy-and-hold. Both drawdowns began on 2026-01-29 and neither had recovered by the end of the data.
How much did costs matter?
Very little. At 5 basis points the CAGR was 12.55% and at 10 basis points 12.16%, because the rule made 44 fills and most of the return came from one holding.
Do other average lengths change the result?
Not much. The 100-day average returned 12.88%, the 150-day 13.02% and the 250-day 12.57%, against 12.98% for the 200-day. The 250-day had the deepest drawdown at 27.62%.
Which strategy did best on IAU?
The weekly 7% target returned 16.35% with a drawdown of 27.66%. The 200-day regime filter ranked 3rd of 12 at 12.98%, and the EMA 12/26 trend had the shallowest drawdown of the top group at 14.97%.
Related
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.