Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target vs Golden Cross (SMA 50/200)
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and one window.
| dip buyer | golden cross | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| Median max drawdown | −26.2% | −21.8% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 16 | 43 |
| Style | assets that sell off hard and recover; it trades volatility without chasing strength | long-horizon investors who want to hold trends but sidestep multi-year bear markets |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | dip buyer | golden cross | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVXY | −48.7% | −10.1% | 38.6% |
| SQQQ | −39.2% | −7.4% | 31.8% |
| FAS | 24.1% | −5.5% | 29.6% |
| SOXL | 16.4% | 45.9% | 29.5% |
| REW | −33.5% | −6.7% | 26.8% |
| TECS | −45.3% | −21.0% | 24.3% |
| SOXS | −46.2% | −24.4% | 21.7% |
| TMF | −29.8% | −8.4% | 21.5% |
| QID | −27.1% | −6.0% | 21.1% |
| SDS | −19.9% | −2.3% | 17.5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: dip buyer or golden cross?
On this 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 window, golden cross produced the higher CAGR on 43 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: dip buyer 1.3% vs golden cross 2.0%; median max drawdown: 26.2% vs 21.8%. Which is better depends on the asset and what you optimize for. The per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.