Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target vs Golden Cross (SMA 50/200)
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| dip buyer | golden cross | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| Median max drawdown | −26.2% | −21.1% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 16 | 43 |
| Style | assets that sell off hard and recover — it monetizes volatility without chasing strength | long-horizon investors who want to hold trends but sidestep multi-year bear markets |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | dip buyer | golden cross | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAS | 28.5% | −3.5% | 32.0% |
| SOXL | 13.3% | 43.0% | 29.7% |
| UVXY | −38.0% | −10.2% | 27.8% |
| REW | −33.1% | −6.9% | 26.2% |
| SOXS | −30.7% | −7.3% | 23.4% |
| SQQQ | −28.9% | −7.5% | 21.4% |
| TMF | −29.2% | −8.8% | 20.4% |
| QID | −26.6% | −6.2% | 20.4% |
| SDS | −19.4% | −2.4% | 17.0% |
| TECL | 18.7% | 4.2% | 14.5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: dip buyer or golden cross?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, golden cross produced the higher CAGR on 43 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: dip buyer 1.4% vs golden cross 2.4%; median max drawdown: 26.2% vs 21.1%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.