Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target vs 3-Month Momentum Switch
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and one window.
| dip buyer | 3-month momentum | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Median max drawdown | −26.2% | −26.2% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 28 | 31 |
| Style | assets that sell off hard and recover; it trades volatility without chasing strength | assets with long, persistent cycles, such as index, sector and managed-futures ETFs |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | dip buyer | 3-month momentum | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAS | 24.1% | −2.5% | 26.6% |
| TECS | −45.3% | −20.7% | 24.6% |
| REW | −33.5% | −15.7% | 17.8% |
| TECL | 24.7% | 7.6% | 17.1% |
| TMF | −29.8% | −13.2% | 16.7% |
| SQQQ | −39.2% | −25.8% | 13.4% |
| SOXX | 27.5% | 14.3% | 13.2% |
| ROM | 19.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| QID | −27.1% | −17.2% | 9.9% |
| IAU | −0.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: dip buyer or 3-month momentum?
On this 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 window, 3-month momentum produced the higher CAGR on 31 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: dip buyer 1.3% vs 3-month momentum 0.0%; median max drawdown: 26.2% vs 26.2%. Which is better depends on the asset and what you optimize for. The per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.