EMA 12/26 Trend vs RSI(14) Mean Reversion
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| EMA 12/26 trend | RSI mean reversion | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.3% | −24.7% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 40 | 19 |
| Style | traders who like MACD logic but want it expressed as a simple, testable long/flat rule | assets that trend up over time but overshoot on the way — broad index ETFs are the classic home |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | EMA 12/26 trend | RSI mean reversion | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMLM | −100.0% | 3.3% | 103.3% |
| UST | −100.0% | −4.3% | 95.7% |
| EEV | −11.5% | 11.2% | 22.7% |
| SOXL | 25.4% | 4.0% | 21.4% |
| FAS | 8.3% | 26.5% | 18.2% |
| SOXS | −20.3% | −38.2% | 17.9% |
| CLSE | 15.5% | 0.9% | 14.6% |
| SPUU | 20.0% | 5.6% | 14.4% |
| SSO | 19.2% | 5.8% | 13.4% |
| TQQQ | 17.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: EMA 12/26 trend or RSI mean reversion?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, EMA 12/26 trend produced the higher CAGR on 40 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: EMA 12/26 trend 2.7% vs RSI mean reversion 2.5%; median max drawdown: 21.3% vs 24.7%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.