EMA 12/26 Trend
Hold while the 12-day exponential average is above the 26-day — the MACD's skeleton as a position switch.
The rules
- WHEN the market opens · IF not invested AND EMA(12) > EMA(26) · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve
- WHEN the market opens · IF invested AND EMA(12) < EMA(26) · THEN sell the whole position
The 12/26 exponential moving average pair is the heart of the MACD indicator. Exponential averages weight recent days more heavily than simple averages, so this crossover reacts faster than an SMA pair of the same length. As a plain long/flat switch it turns the MACD's core idea into a position you can actually hold and measure.
Good for: traders who like MACD logic but want it expressed as a simple, testable long/flat rule.
Watch out: faster reaction means more trades and more whipsaws than a 50/200 cross; check the trade count on each backtest page.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Results on every ETF
| ETF | CAGR | buy & hold | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | 25.4% | 30.2% | −65.4% | 0.68 | 22 | 36% |
| TECL | 21.3% | 31.9% | −53.5% | 0.65 | 22 | 45% |
| SPUU | 20.0% | 22.0% | −22.9% | 0.98 | 19 | 53% |
| SSO | 19.2% | 21.5% | −22.9% | 0.94 | 19 | 47% |
| TQQQ | 17.6% | 22.3% | −50.0% | 0.60 | 22 | 41% |
| SOXX | 17.5% | 29.6% | −34.0% | 0.74 | 22 | 50% |
| ROM | 16.3% | 26.1% | −42.5% | 0.62 | 23 | 39% |
| CLSE | 15.5% | 20.1% | −10.2% | 1.40 | 17 | 47% |
| IAU | 13.0% | 13.6% | −13.8% | 0.92 | 22 | 50% |
| QLD | 11.9% | 21.6% | −38.1% | 0.54 | 22 | 41% |
| VOO | 10.9% | 14.3% | −11.8% | 1.03 | 17 | 53% |
| SPY | 10.9% | 14.4% | −11.6% | 1.04 | 16 | 56% |
| IOO | 10.7% | 16.4% | −15.8% | 0.98 | 21 | 48% |
| VV | 10.3% | 13.9% | −13.4% | 0.97 | 18 | 50% |
| VOOG | 9.3% | 14.9% | −16.9% | 0.76 | 22 | 41% |
| XLK | 9.0% | 20.2% | −25.5% | 0.60 | 23 | 35% |
| FAS | 8.3% | 22.9% | −59.8% | 0.41 | 21 | 33% |
| QQQ | 8.0% | 15.8% | −23.7% | 0.61 | 21 | 43% |
| QQQM | 8.0% | 15.8% | −24.0% | 0.61 | 21 | 43% |
| VOOV | 7.7% | 13.2% | −15.3% | 0.84 | 20 | 50% |
| XLF | 7.5% | 14.1% | −17.7% | 0.67 | 24 | 58% |
| VTV | 7.2% | 13.9% | −16.5% | 0.80 | 20 | 65% |
| VOX | 7.2% | 9.2% | −19.4% | 0.61 | 22 | 50% |
| TBF | 6.5% | 11.0% | −17.8% | 0.58 | 25 | 48% |
| ALTY | 4.5% | 8.7% | −14.4% | 0.69 | 19 | 42% |
| SGOV | 3.2% | 3.2% | −0.0% | 13.43 | 9 | 67% |
| CTA | 3.2% | 7.2% | −19.1% | 0.30 | 18 | 33% |
| USDU | 3.1% | 5.1% | −4.8% | 0.65 | 22 | 50% |
| QAI | 3.0% | 3.9% | −7.3% | 0.68 | 19 | 47% |
| XLY | 2.7% | 7.3% | −21.3% | 0.26 | 26 | 38% |
| IGIB | 2.6% | 0.9% | −5.3% | 0.63 | 19 | 37% |
| QQQE | 2.0% | 9.4% | −20.1% | 0.23 | 23 | 35% |
| XLP | 1.6% | 7.0% | −22.8% | 0.22 | 26 | 50% |
| FXE | 1.4% | −0.7% | −11.6% | 0.30 | 20 | 30% |
| AGG | 1.2% | −0.3% | −4.9% | 0.34 | 21 | 38% |
| BND | 1.2% | −0.3% | −5.0% | 0.32 | 21 | 38% |
| UDN | 1.2% | −1.0% | −9.9% | 0.27 | 21 | 24% |
| IEI | 1.0% | 0.0% | −4.2% | 0.34 | 19 | 37% |
| IWM | 0.9% | 8.5% | −34.0% | 0.14 | 23 | 35% |
| EEM | 0.1% | 5.6% | −31.8% | 0.07 | 25 | 32% |
| IEF | −0.3% | −1.6% | −10.6% | -0.04 | 25 | 20% |
| RINF | −0.3% | 6.6% | −16.0% | 0.01 | 30 | 37% |
| TLT | −0.7% | −7.3% | −15.8% | -0.03 | 21 | 29% |
| SPDN | −2.8% | −9.7% | −20.7% | -0.17 | 19 | 26% |
| SH | −3.1% | −9.9% | −20.4% | -0.20 | 18 | 28% |
| SDS | −5.6% | −22.1% | −34.1% | -0.13 | 18 | 28% |
| PSQ | −5.7% | −13.2% | −35.2% | -0.28 | 19 | 16% |
| EEV | −11.5% | −14.5% | −55.1% | -0.32 | 22 | 27% |
| VXZ | −11.7% | −13.9% | −53.7% | -0.47 | 29 | 17% |
| QID | −12.1% | −28.9% | −57.3% | -0.24 | 22 | 23% |
| VIXM | −13.4% | −14.9% | −58.5% | -0.50 | 31 | 10% |
| TMF | −15.0% | −30.7% | −66.4% | -0.50 | 27 | 26% |
| REW | −18.3% | −33.6% | −68.8% | -0.38 | 21 | 19% |
| SOXS | −20.3% | −30.5% | −73.6% | -0.32 | 12 | 0% |
| SQQQ | −21.8% | −30.9% | −78.8% | -0.29 | 19 | 16% |
| TECS | −24.2% | −21.8% | −79.2% | -0.41 | 20 | 15% |
| UVXY | −35.5% | −38.0% | −93.9% | -0.39 | 19 | 16% |
| UST | −100.0% | −7.3% | −63641.8% | 0.49 | 16 | 19% |
| KMLM | −100.0% | 6.0% | −11128873.0% | 0.56 | 1 | 100% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the EMA 12/26 trend strategy?
Hold while the 12-day exponential average is above the 26-day — the MACD's skeleton as a position switch. The 12/26 exponential moving average pair is the heart of the MACD indicator. Exponential averages weight recent days more heavily than simple averages, so this crossover reacts faster than an SMA pair of the same length. As a plain long/flat switch it turns the MACD's core idea into a position you can actually hold and measure.
Does EMA 12/26 trend beat buy-and-hold?
Across 59 ETFs backtested 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, it beat same-ETF buy-and-hold on 21 of 59 (36%). Median CAGR was 2.7% with a median max drawdown of 21.3%. Per-ETF results vary widely — see the table.
Is this the same as trading MACD signals?
It's the MACD's underlying trend component. Classic MACD trades the signal-line crossover of the 12/26 spread; this template trades the spread's sign directly — simpler, and fully expressible in blocks.
Compare with other strategies
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.