EMA 12/26 Trend on RINF
ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF — tracks 30-year breakeven inflation expectations. Backtest 2021-01-04 → 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, computed by the same engine that runs live DeployQuant strategies.
Year by year
| Year | EMA 12/26 trend | buy & hold |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | −1.2% | 14.7% |
| 2022 | −1.6% | 8.8% |
| 2023 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2024 | 3.6% | 9.7% |
| 2025 | −3.2% | 1.4% |
| 2026 | 0.5% | 1.9% |
The rules
Hold while the 12-day exponential average is above the 26-day — the MACD's skeleton as a position switch.
- WHEN the market opens · IF not invested AND EMA(12) > EMA(26) · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve
- WHEN the market opens · IF invested AND EMA(12) < EMA(26) · THEN sell the whole position
The 12/26 exponential moving average pair is the heart of the MACD indicator. Exponential averages weight recent days more heavily than simple averages, so this crossover reacts faster than an SMA pair of the same length. As a plain long/flat switch it turns the MACD's core idea into a position you can actually hold and measure.
Good for: traders who like MACD logic but want it expressed as a simple, testable long/flat rule.
Watch out: faster reaction means more trades and more whipsaws than a 50/200 cross; check the trade count on each backtest page.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
Did EMA 12/26 trend beat buy-and-hold on RINF?
Over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, EMA 12/26 trend on RINF returned −0.3% annualized vs 6.6% for buy-and-hold — it trailed buy-and-hold by 6.9% per year, with a maximum drawdown of 16.0% (buy-and-hold: 13.3%).
How many trades did it make?
30 completed round trips over 5.5 years (61 fills), with 37% of round trips closing profitably.
Is this the same as trading MACD signals?
It's the MACD's underlying trend component. Classic MACD trades the signal-line crossover of the 12/26 spread; this template trades the spread's sign directly — simpler, and fully expressible in blocks.
Related
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.