EMA 12/26 Trend vs Golden Cross (SMA 50/200)
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| EMA 12/26 trend | golden cross | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.3% | −21.1% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 26 | 33 |
| Style | traders who like MACD logic but want it expressed as a simple, testable long/flat rule | long-horizon investors who want to hold trends but sidestep multi-year bear markets |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | EMA 12/26 trend | golden cross | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMLM | −100.0% | 0.2% | 100.2% |
| UST | −100.0% | −2.2% | 97.8% |
| UVXY | −35.5% | −10.2% | 25.3% |
| SOXL | 25.4% | 43.0% | 17.6% |
| TECL | 21.3% | 4.2% | 17.1% |
| SQQQ | −21.8% | −7.5% | 14.3% |
| TQQQ | 17.6% | 4.1% | 13.5% |
| SOXS | −20.3% | −7.3% | 13.0% |
| EEV | −11.5% | 0.9% | 12.3% |
| FAS | 8.3% | −3.5% | 11.8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: EMA 12/26 trend or golden cross?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, golden cross produced the higher CAGR on 33 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: EMA 12/26 trend 2.7% vs golden cross 2.4%; median max drawdown: 21.3% vs 21.1%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.