SPDN trading strategies, backtested
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares — Direxion's -1x daily S&P 500 fund. Every DeployQuant template run on SPDN over 5.5 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | −1.4% | −22.8% | -0.18 | 2 | 100% | $9,250 |
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | −2.2% | −27.6% | -0.17 | 163 | 51% | $8,851 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | −2.3% | −18.0% | -0.23 | 4 | 25% | $8,789 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | −2.8% | −20.7% | -0.17 | 19 | 26% | $8,570 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | −2.8% | −22.6% | -0.17 | 14 | 29% | $8,567 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | −3.5% | −33.1% | -0.28 | 4 | 25% | $8,190 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | −4.5% | −29.0% | -0.33 | 23 | 17% | $7,753 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | −5.5% | −31.5% | -0.47 | 8 | 13% | $7,306 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | −6.2% | −35.1% | -0.54 | 13 | 38% | $7,018 |
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | −7.8% | −45.3% | -0.55 | 7 | 43% | $6,366 |
| First-to-Last Day of Month | −8.5% | −41.5% | -0.49 | 67 | 36% | $6,131 |
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | −9.7% | −45.0% | -0.59 | 97 | 12% | $5,690 |
| Buy & hold SPDN | −9.7% | −45.3% | -0.56 | — | — | $5,704 |
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for SPDN?
Of the 12 templates tested on SPDN over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, the strongest by CAGR was dip buyer at −1.4% (max drawdown 22.8%), versus −9.7% for buy-and-hold. Best-in-hindsight is not a forecast — check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding SPDN?
11 of 12 templates beat SPDN buy-and-hold (−9.7% CAGR) on this window; 11 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (45.3%).
Other inverse etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.