TBF trading strategies, backtested
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury — -1x daily long-term Treasuries — a rising-rates position. Every DeployQuant template run on TBF over 5.5 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-to-Last Day of Month | 10.9% | −17.6% | 0.79 | 67 | 58% | $17,747 |
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | 10.0% | −16.6% | 0.76 | 2 | 100% | $16,963 |
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | 9.1% | −7.7% | 0.96 | 161 | 61% | $16,186 |
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | 8.7% | −18.6% | 0.67 | 65 | 29% | $15,855 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | 7.1% | −17.5% | 0.59 | 4 | 75% | $14,644 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | 6.5% | −17.8% | 0.58 | 25 | 48% | $14,144 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | 5.4% | −13.9% | 0.51 | 17 | 59% | $13,404 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | 3.1% | −23.8% | 0.30 | 28 | 39% | $11,815 |
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | 2.8% | −8.2% | 0.47 | 2 | 100% | $11,643 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | 0.9% | −14.2% | 0.14 | 11 | 64% | $10,487 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | 0.1% | −22.8% | 0.07 | 12 | 33% | $10,070 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | −2.4% | −16.4% | -0.29 | 4 | 25% | $8,748 |
| Buy & hold TBF | 11.0% | −17.5% | 0.77 | — | — | $17,803 |
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for TBF?
Of the 12 templates tested on TBF over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, the strongest by CAGR was monthly cycle at 10.9% (max drawdown 17.6%), versus 11.0% for buy-and-hold. Best-in-hindsight is not a forecast — check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding TBF?
0 of 12 templates beat TBF buy-and-hold (11.0% CAGR) on this window; 7 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (17.5%).
Other inverse etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.