XLP trading strategies, backtested
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund — defensive consumer staples — the classic risk-off equity sector. Every DeployQuant template run on XLP over 5.5 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | 8.1% | −11.1% | 0.96 | 159 | 65% | $15,391 |
| First-to-Last Day of Month | 6.8% | −13.5% | 0.60 | 67 | 55% | $14,389 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | 6.7% | −9.7% | 0.76 | 16 | 81% | $14,290 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | 3.0% | −14.3% | 0.33 | 3 | 67% | $11,792 |
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | 2.9% | −23.8% | 0.31 | 79 | 19% | $11,732 |
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | 2.8% | −22.0% | 0.29 | 2 | 0% | $11,641 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | 1.7% | −15.6% | 0.22 | 18 | 39% | $10,951 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | 1.6% | −22.8% | 0.22 | 26 | 50% | $10,947 |
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | 1.4% | −8.0% | 0.45 | 1 | 100% | $10,779 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | −0.5% | −21.9% | 0.01 | 35 | 26% | $9,747 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | −1.4% | −23.6% | -0.13 | 12 | 25% | $9,273 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | −1.9% | −14.5% | -0.36 | 2 | 0% | $8,976 |
| Buy & hold XLP | 7.0% | −16.0% | 0.60 | — | — | $14,514 |
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for XLP?
Of the 12 templates tested on XLP over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, the strongest by CAGR was RSI(2) snapback at 8.1% (max drawdown 11.1%), versus 7.0% for buy-and-hold. Best-in-hindsight is not a forecast — check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding XLP?
1 of 12 templates beat XLP buy-and-hold (7.0% CAGR) on this window; 7 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (16.0%).
Other sector etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.