XLY trading strategies, backtested
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund — consumer discretionary stocks, a cyclical read on the US consumer. Every DeployQuant template run on XLY over 5.5 years of minute data, same engine, same window, sorted by return.
| Strategy | CAGR | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate | final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Entry + 7% Target | 12.5% | −24.7% | 0.69 | 121 | 31% | $19,173 |
| RSI(2) Dip Snapback | 9.7% | −16.6% | 0.66 | 149 | 65% | $16,647 |
| RSI(14) Mean Reversion | 6.0% | −20.6% | 0.43 | 14 | 71% | $13,780 |
| First-to-Last Day of Month | 5.0% | −43.8% | 0.34 | 67 | 54% | $13,109 |
| 20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop | 4.9% | −18.3% | 0.40 | 8 | 63% | $13,028 |
| Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target | 4.2% | −32.8% | 0.31 | 3 | 100% | $12,526 |
| EMA 12/26 Trend | 2.7% | −21.3% | 0.26 | 26 | 38% | $11,607 |
| Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) | 1.5% | −25.6% | 0.17 | 4 | 75% | $10,849 |
| SMA 10/50 Trend | 1.3% | −27.5% | 0.16 | 21 | 43% | $10,746 |
| 200-Day SMA Regime Filter | −1.7% | −27.3% | -0.05 | 25 | 24% | $9,093 |
| SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop | −3.8% | −39.6% | -0.15 | 7 | 43% | $8,078 |
| 3-Month Momentum Switch | −4.1% | −34.7% | -0.24 | 17 | 35% | $7,938 |
| Buy & hold XLY | 7.3% | −38.9% | 0.44 | — | — | $14,798 |
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
What was the best strategy for XLY?
Of the 12 templates tested on XLY over 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, the strongest by CAGR was weekly 7% target at 12.5% (max drawdown 24.7%), versus 7.3% for buy-and-hold. Best-in-hindsight is not a forecast — check drawdowns and trade counts before drawing conclusions.
Did any strategy beat buying and holding XLY?
2 of 12 templates beat XLY buy-and-hold (7.3% CAGR) on this window; 10 of 12 had a shallower maximum drawdown than holding (38.9%).
Other sector etfs
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.