EMA 12/26 Trend vs SMA 10/50 Trend
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| EMA 12/26 trend | SMA 10/50 trend | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.3% | −22.0% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 38 | 21 |
| Style | traders who like MACD logic but want it expressed as a simple, testable long/flat rule | trending assets where multi-week swings are worth catching — leveraged index ETFs are a common pairing |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | EMA 12/26 trend | SMA 10/50 trend | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMLM | −100.0% | 2.0% | 102.0% |
| UST | −100.0% | 0.4% | 100.4% |
| EEV | −11.5% | −24.4% | 12.9% |
| SOXX | 17.5% | 7.3% | 10.2% |
| SSO | 19.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
| SOXL | 25.4% | 16.7% | 8.7% |
| SPUU | 20.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| QLD | 11.9% | 19.6% | 7.7% |
| SDS | −5.6% | −10.7% | 5.1% |
| EEM | 0.1% | −4.2% | 4.3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: EMA 12/26 trend or SMA 10/50 trend?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, EMA 12/26 trend produced the higher CAGR on 38 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: EMA 12/26 trend 2.7% vs SMA 10/50 trend 2.0%; median max drawdown: 21.3% vs 22.0%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.