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SMA 10/50 Trend

A faster moving-average crossover: hold while the 10-day average is above the 50-day.

Across 59 ETFs (2021-01-04 → 2026-07-17): median CAGR 2.0%, median max drawdown 22.0%, and it beat buy-and-hold of the same ETF in 21 of 59 cases (36%). Same rules, same engine, every ETF.

The rules

  1. WHEN the market opens · IF not invested AND SMA(10) > SMA(50) · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve
  2. WHEN the market opens · IF invested AND SMA(10) < SMA(50) · THEN sell the whole position

The golden cross's quicker sibling. Using 10- and 50-day averages catches intermediate trends measured in weeks rather than years — it enters recoveries earlier and exits breakdowns earlier, at the cost of more whipsaw trades in sideways markets. A good template for seeing how signal speed changes a strategy's character.

Good for: trending assets where multi-week swings are worth catching — leveraged index ETFs are a common pairing.
Watch out: several false signals a year is normal; each whipsaw costs a small loss and they add up in flat markets.

Run SMA 10/50 trend yourself — free →

Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.

Results on every ETF

ETFCAGRbuy & holdmax DDSharpetradeswin rate
QLD 19.6% 21.6% −32.4% 0.7817 41%
TQQQ 19.1% 22.3% −53.2% 0.6418 50%
TECL 17.4% 31.9% −62.4% 0.5816 50%
CLSE 16.9% 20.1% −9.3% 1.5511 64%
SOXL 16.7% 30.2% −72.2% 0.5917 47%
ROM 13.4% 26.1% −43.5% 0.5516 44%
IAU 12.4% 13.6% −18.1% 0.8915 47%
SPUU 12.0% 22.0% −31.4% 0.6513 54%
IOO 9.4% 16.4% −22.0% 0.9015 53%
VOOG 9.2% 14.9% −18.1% 0.7415 53%
SSO 9.1% 21.5% −32.1% 0.5314 57%
QQQM 9.0% 15.8% −20.9% 0.6818 39%
XLK 8.8% 20.2% −25.7% 0.5918 44%
QQQ 8.7% 15.8% −20.8% 0.6618 39%
VOO 8.6% 14.3% −12.6% 0.8415 60%
VV 8.6% 13.9% −12.6% 0.8214 50%
SPY 8.4% 14.4% −12.5% 0.8315 60%
VTV 7.4% 13.9% −11.6% 0.8116 63%
SOXX 7.3% 29.6% −40.3% 0.4017 53%
VOX 6.5% 9.2% −19.6% 0.5617 59%
VOOV 6.3% 13.2% −14.7% 0.7015 47%
TBF 5.4% 11.0% −13.9% 0.5117 59%
FAS 5.3% 22.9% −57.0% 0.3218 56%
XLF 4.1% 14.1% −27.3% 0.4018 44%
USDU 3.8% 5.1% −7.4% 0.7714 50%
ALTY 3.3% 8.7% −15.0% 0.5116 38%
SGOV 3.2% 3.2% −0.0% 13.475 40%
CTA 3.0% 7.2% −16.4% 0.2916 50%
QAI 2.4% 3.9% −8.1% 0.5717 41%
KMLM 2.0% 6.0% −21.3% 0.2418 28%
FXE 1.9% −0.7% −8.2% 0.4017 35%
IGIB 1.8% 0.9% −6.7% 0.4516 44%
UDN 1.8% −1.0% −6.0% 0.3916 38%
QQQE 1.7% 9.4% −25.7% 0.2019 42%
XLP 1.7% 7.0% −15.6% 0.2218 39%
IEI 1.4% 0.0% −3.2% 0.4914 57%
XLY 1.3% 7.3% −27.5% 0.1621 43%
IEF 1.2% −1.6% −5.7% 0.2814 43%
AGG 0.8% −0.3% −6.5% 0.2318 44%
BND 0.6% −0.3% −6.6% 0.1719 47%
UST 0.4% −7.3% −10.4% 0.0915 40%
TLT −1.1% −7.3% −14.3% -0.0717 29%
IWM −1.4% 8.5% −33.0% -0.0220 35%
SH −2.2% −9.9% −19.6% -0.1313 23%
RINF −2.3% 6.6% −24.0% -0.2124 38%
SPDN −2.8% −9.7% −22.6% -0.1714 29%
EEM −4.2% 5.6% −41.2% -0.2522 23%
PSQ −5.5% −13.2% −33.7% -0.2717 35%
SDS −10.7% −22.1% −54.4% -0.3713 23%
TMF −11.1% −30.7% −57.6% -0.3118 22%
VXZ −12.5% −13.9% −55.0% -0.5625 24%
QID −12.7% −28.9% −61.2% -0.2718 22%
VIXM −13.6% −14.9% −57.0% -0.5424 21%
REW −18.1% −33.6% −73.1% -0.3620 20%
SQQQ −19.9% −30.9% −77.5% -0.2518 17%
SOXS −20.4% −30.5% −71.6% -0.327 14%
TECS −23.7% −21.8% −81.4% -0.4320 25%
EEV −24.4% −14.5% −80.0% -0.9423 17%
UVXY −33.5% −38.0% −90.1% -0.4016 6%

Frequently asked questions

What is the SMA 10/50 trend strategy?

A faster moving-average crossover: hold while the 10-day average is above the 50-day. The golden cross's quicker sibling. Using 10- and 50-day averages catches intermediate trends measured in weeks rather than years — it enters recoveries earlier and exits breakdowns earlier, at the cost of more whipsaw trades in sideways markets. A good template for seeing how signal speed changes a strategy's character.

Does SMA 10/50 trend beat buy-and-hold?

Across 59 ETFs backtested 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, it beat same-ETF buy-and-hold on 21 of 59 (36%). Median CAGR was 2.0% with a median max drawdown of 22.0%. Per-ETF results vary widely — see the table.

Why 10 and 50 days?

A common intermediate-trend pairing — fast enough to react within weeks, slow enough to ignore single bad days. Both windows are editable parameters in DeployQuant.

Compare with other strategies

SMA 10/50 trend vs RSI mean reversionhead-to-head on 59 ETFsSMA 10/50 trend vs RSI(2) snapbackhead-to-head on 59 ETFsSMA 10/50 trend vs golden crosshead-to-head on 59 ETFsSMA 10/50 trend vs EMA 12/26 trendhead-to-head on 59 ETFsSMA 10/50 trend vs 200-day regime filterhead-to-head on 59 ETFsSMA 10/50 trend vs weekly 7% targethead-to-head on 59 ETFs

Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.