DeployQuantGolden Cross (SMA 50/200) vs SMA 10/50 Trend
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and one window.
| golden cross | SMA 10/50 trend | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.8% | −23.0% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 42 | 17 |
| Style | long-horizon investors who want to hold trends but sidestep multi-year bear markets | trending assets with multi-week swings, such as leveraged index ETFs |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | golden cross | SMA 10/50 trend | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVXY | −10.1% | −38.0% | 27.9% |
| SOXL | 45.9% | 18.2% | 27.7% |
| EEV | 0.7% | −24.4% | 25.1% |
| SOXS | −24.4% | −49.0% | 24.5% |
| SOXX | 28.2% | 7.7% | 20.6% |
| SQQQ | −7.4% | −21.1% | 13.7% |
| REW | −6.7% | −19.8% | 13.0% |
| EEM | 7.8% | −3.9% | 11.7% |
| VIXM | −1.8% | −13.1% | 11.3% |
| VXZ | −1.1% | −12.1% | 10.9% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: golden cross or SMA 10/50 trend?
On this 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 window, golden cross produced the higher CAGR on 42 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: golden cross 2.0% vs SMA 10/50 trend 2.1%; median max drawdown: 21.8% vs 23.0%. Which is better depends on the asset and what you optimize for. The per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.