Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) vs SMA 10/50 Trend
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| golden cross | SMA 10/50 trend | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.1% | −22.0% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 34 | 25 |
| Style | long-horizon investors who want to hold trends but sidestep multi-year bear markets | trending assets where multi-week swings are worth catching — leveraged index ETFs are a common pairing |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | golden cross | SMA 10/50 trend | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | 43.0% | 16.7% | 26.3% |
| EEV | 0.9% | −24.4% | 25.3% |
| UVXY | −10.2% | −33.5% | 23.2% |
| SOXX | 26.7% | 7.3% | 19.3% |
| TQQQ | 4.1% | 19.1% | 15.0% |
| TECL | 4.2% | 17.4% | 13.2% |
| SOXS | −7.3% | −20.4% | 13.1% |
| SQQQ | −7.5% | −19.9% | 12.4% |
| VIXM | −1.9% | −13.6% | 11.7% |
| VXZ | −1.2% | −12.5% | 11.3% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: golden cross or SMA 10/50 trend?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, golden cross produced the higher CAGR on 34 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: golden cross 2.4% vs SMA 10/50 trend 2.0%; median max drawdown: 21.1% vs 22.0%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.