DeployQuantSMA 10/50 Trend on VOOG
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF: the growth half of the S&P 500. Backtest 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, computed by the same engine that runs live DeployQuant strategies.
On VOOG, the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF, the SMA 10/50 trend rule grew $10,000 to $16,358 between 2021-01-04 and 2026-10-02. That is a CAGR of 8.95%, a maximum drawdown of 18.02% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.72. VOOG held without trading ended at $23,131, a CAGR of 15.73% with a drawdown of 32.13% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.83. The rule's drawdown was 14.11 points smaller and its CAGR was 6.78 points lower.
The rule switches between long and flat. With the sleeve flat and the 10-day simple average above the 50-day, it buys 98% of the sleeve at the next open. Once the 10-day drops under the 50-day, it sells the whole position. It made 16 closed round trips and 33 fills, held for 83.9 days on average and was invested 66.5% of the time.
VOOG puts this rule seventh of 12 strategies, and thirteenth of 59 funds. Across all 59 funds the rule's median CAGR is 2.12%, and the broad index funds alone give 7.97%. The category is wide, though: the same rule returned 9.16% on IOO and 9.05% on QQQM but lost money on IWM and EEM.
Everything here is hypothetical: a single window, decisions once a day, fills on minute bars, and a headline run that charges nothing for trading.
Year by year
| Year | SMA 10/50 trend | buy & hold |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18.8% | 33.1% |
| 2022 | −14.2% | −29.0% |
| 2023 | 11.2% | 29.2% |
| 2024 | 16.5% | 35.3% |
| 2025 | 22.1% | 21.8% |
| 2026 | 1.3% | 17.0% |
Calendar years against the fund
The rule returned 18.8% in 2021, -14.2% in 2022, 11.2% in 2023, 16.5% in 2024, 22.1% in 2025 and 1.3% so far in 2026. The fund returned 33.1%, -29%, 29.2%, 35.3%, 21.8% and 17%. The rule beat the fund in 2022, by 14.8 percentage points, and in 2025, by 0.3 points. It trailed in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2026, by 14.3, 18, 18.8 and 15.7 points.
The 2022 result is the reason to hold a trend rule. The fund lost 29% and the rule lost 14.2%. The rule was flat in February, May, June and October of 2022, and in other months it held positions that lost: the 2022-03-29 entry lost 5.85% by 2022-04-20 and the 2022-11-18 entry lost 5.77% by 2022-12-23. December 2022 was the rule's worst month at -7.64%. The crossover sold into the December weakness after buying the November bounce, which is the usual cost of a 10/50 pair after a low.
2023 and 2024 were strong years for the fund, at 29.2% and 35.3%, and the rule gave up the largest amounts relative to it. The rule made two good trades, 12.72% from 2023-03-28 to 2023-08-21 and 11.25% from 2023-11-15 to 2024-04-22, and it also took the 3.41% loss from 2023-09-05 to 2023-09-21 and the 5.18% loss from 2024-08-26 to 2024-09-09. In a fund that rose most days, the stretches spent in cash cost more than the whipsaws did.
2025 was almost level. The rule made 22.1% and the fund 21.8%. The April 2025 low gave the rule an entry on 2025-05-06 at an adjusted 57.16, which became the best trade in the run: 23.93% to 2025-11-21 over 199 days. The fund fell 21.82% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08, and the rule had sold on 2025-03-03 and avoided most of that fall. 2025 is the year in which a late exit and a late entry both worked.
2026 so far shows 1.3% for the rule against 17% for the fund. The rule lost 4.23% on the entry of 2025-12-05, then made 7.04% from 2026-04-16 to 2026-07-08, lost 3.17% from 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-24, and has an open position from 2026-08-10. Three round trips closed this year with one win.
Month by month
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | −0.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | −4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | −2.6% | 0.0% | −2.2% | −3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | −5.3% | −0.5% | 0.0% | 2.2% | −7.6% |
| 2023 | 0.6% | −2.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% | −4.2% | −3.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | 2.8% | 7.1% | 2.1% | −5.3% | 1.9% | 6.7% | −1.3% | −0.1% | −3.6% | −0.6% | 5.9% | 0.8% |
| 2025 | 2.6% | −2.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | −5.0% | −0.9% |
| 2026 | 0.6% | −3.8% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 7.9% | −1.8% | −4.7% | −1.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | – | – |
Monthly returns
The best month was May 2025 at 7.93% and the worst was December 2022 at a loss of 7.64%. The fund's best month was April 2026 at 14.62% and its worst was April 2022 at a loss of 12.32%. The rule made 2.59% in April 2026 and lost 3.58% in April 2022, so it captured a small part of the best month and a small part of the worst.
February 2024 at 7.1% and June 2024 at 6.74% were two of the better months, and May 2026 at 7.92% matched May 2025. Strong Mays and Junes appear in this fund's own seasonal averages, with May averaging 4.05%, though each month-of-year figure rests on five or six observations.
The rule lost in a few months in a row in some stretches. From August to October 2024, the monthly figures were -0.15%, -3.65% and -0.58%. From November 2025 to February 2026, they were -5.02%, -0.91%, 0.57% and -3.81%. These are the whipsaw periods, when the fund moved sideways or dipped and the 10-day average crossed the 50-day more than once.
The first three months of 2021 show zeros because the first signal came on 2021-04-07. After that, the rule spent most months invested, and zeros are scattered through 2022 and a few later months.
Every trade
SMA 10/50 trend on VOOG made 16 closed round trips and one position still open at the end of the test, an average hold of 84 days, an average winner of 10.70%, an average loser of −3.82%, a profit factor of 2.62, a longest losing streak of 4. It held a position at the close on 66.5% of trading days.
| Entry | Entry price | Exit | Exit price | Return | Days held |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-07 | $38.86 | 2021-09-29 | $43.37 | 11.6% | 175 |
| 2021-10-25 | $45.43 | 2022-01-13 | $47.27 | 4.0% | 80 |
| 2022-03-29 | $45.44 | 2022-04-20 | $42.78 | −5.8% | 22 |
| 2022-07-21 | $37.67 | 2022-09-08 | $37.30 | −1.0% | 49 |
| 2022-11-18 | $36.24 | 2022-12-23 | $34.15 | −5.8% | 35 |
| 2023-01-30 | $35.96 | 2023-03-14 | $35.24 | −2.0% | 43 |
| 2023-03-28 | $36.31 | 2023-08-21 | $40.93 | 12.7% | 146 |
| 2023-09-05 | $42.48 | 2023-09-21 | $41.03 | −3.4% | 16 |
| 2023-11-15 | $42.58 | 2024-04-22 | $47.37 | 11.3% | 159 |
| 2024-05-13 | $50.41 | 2024-08-01 | $54.48 | 8.1% | 80 |
| 2024-08-26 | $55.74 | 2024-09-09 | $52.85 | −5.2% | 14 |
| 2024-09-20 | $56.44 | 2025-03-03 | $60.36 | 7.0% | 164 |
| 2025-05-06 | $57.16 | 2025-11-21 | $70.84 | 23.9% | 199 |
| 2025-12-05 | $74.50 | 2026-02-06 | $71.35 | −4.2% | 63 |
| 2026-04-16 | $75.82 | 2026-07-08 | $81.16 | 7.0% | 83 |
| 2026-07-10 | $82.74 | 2026-07-24 | $80.12 | −3.2% | 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $85.47 | open | – | 1.2% | – |
Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, so they sit below the quotes printed at the time. An open position is marked at the last close.
The 17 trades
The run holds 17 trades, with the last one still open. Of the 16 closed, 8 won. The average winner made 10.7% and the average loser lost 3.82%, so the profit factor was 2.62. The median trade made 4.05% over a median hold of 80 days. Holds ran from 14 days to 199 days, and the rule never won more than twice or lost more than four times in a row.
A win rate of 50% with winners much larger than losers is the usual shape for a trend rule. Half the trades lose a few percent, and a few trades gain more than 10%. The five best were 23.93% from 2025-05-06 to 2025-11-21, 12.72% from 2023-03-28 to 2023-08-21, 11.61% from 2021-04-07 to 2021-09-29, 11.25% from 2023-11-15 to 2024-04-22 and 8.07% from 2024-05-13 to 2024-08-01. All five lasted at least 80 days, and four of them lasted about five months or more.
The five worst were -5.85% from 2022-03-29 to 2022-04-20, -5.77% from 2022-11-18 to 2022-12-23, -5.18% from 2024-08-26 to 2024-09-09, -4.23% from 2025-12-05 to 2026-02-06 and -3.41% from 2023-09-05 to 2023-09-21. None lost more than 5.85%. Because the rule needs the 10-day average to fall below the 50-day to exit, a loss is usually a few weeks of a fund drifting down. The trade list has no big single losses.
The first trade, from 2021-04-07 at an adjusted price of 38.86 to 2021-09-29 at 43.37, gained 11.61% in 175 days. The open trade started on 2026-08-10 at 85.47 and shows a gain of 1.17%. It is not in the win rate.
Wins came in the longer holds. Of the 16 closed trades, the ones that lasted 80 days or more were the large winners, and the trades under 30 days were almost all losses: 22 days at -5.85%, 16 days at -3.41%, 14 days at -5.18% and 14 days at -3.17%. A short hold means the cross reversed soon after it formed.
Per exit year, 2021 had one round trip and one win, 2022 had four and one win, 2023 had three and one win, 2024 had three and two wins, 2025 had two and two wins, and 2026 has three and one win. 2022 contributed three of the losing trades.
Largest drawdowns
| Peak | Low point | Depth | Days to low | Recovered | Days to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-27 | 2023-03-10 | −18.0% | 438 | 2024-02-02 | 329 |
| 2024-07-10 | 2024-09-06 | −11.0% | 58 | 2025-01-22 | 138 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2026-02-05 | −10.6% | 99 | 2026-06-01 | 116 |
Buy-and-hold's deepest drawdown ran from 2021-12-27 to 2022-10-14 and reached −32.1%.
Drawdowns
The maximum drawdown was 18.02%, from a peak on 2021-12-27 to a trough on 2023-03-10, which is 438 days, with recovery on 2024-02-02, 329 days later. The fund's own drawdown from the same peak was 32.13%, reaching a trough on 2022-10-14 and recovering on 2024-03-01. The rule's trough came five months after the fund's. The rule's equity kept falling through the December 2022 loss and the 2023-01-30 entry, which lost 2% by 2023-03-14.
The second drawdown was 10.97%, from 2024-07-10 to 2024-09-06, recovered on 2025-01-22. It matches the 2024-08-26 entry that lost 5.18%. The third was 10.6%, from 2025-10-29 to 2026-02-05, recovered on 2026-06-01. The fund's second and third drawdowns were 21.82% and 13.5%. In each case the rule fell less than the fund.
The gap between the two maximum drawdowns is 14.11 percentage points in the rule's favour. The cost is a return gap of 6.78 points of CAGR a year. On a risk-adjusted measure the fund still came out ahead, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 against 0.72, so the rule's saving in drawdown came with a larger loss in return than the loss in volatility.
The fund's worst days were -6.02% on 2025-04-04 and -5.53% on 2025-04-03, and its best was 11.05% on 2025-04-09. The rule was long on the two bad days and flat for the rebound. April 2025 shows how a two-speed average behaves in a fast crash and recovery: the 10-day average dropped below the 50-day after the damage, and rose above it again weeks after the low.
With trading costs
The headline run fills at the bar price. These runs charge slippage on every fill.
| Slippage per fill | CAGR | Max drawdown | Final value | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None (headline) | 8.9% | −18.0% | $16,358 | 0.72 |
| 5 basis points | 8.7% | −18.4% | $16,101 | 0.70 |
| 10 basis points | 8.3% | −18.7% | $15,846 | 0.68 |
Cost runs
Charging 5 basis points a trade lowers the CAGR to 8.65% and ending equity to $16,101. The drawdown edges to 18.37% and the Sharpe ratio to 0.702. Charging 10 basis points gives 8.35%, $15,846, a drawdown of 18.68% and a Sharpe of 0.68.
The change is small because the rule makes only 33 fills in the window. Each fill is a trade of the whole sleeve, and the average winner of 10.7% is large against any charge in the cost runs. VOOG has an average daily dollar volume of about $56 million and a median minute volume of 2,202 shares. The cost runs use fixed charges and do not measure what an account would pay on a fund with that volume.
Changing the parameters
| Version | CAGR | Max drawdown | Round trips | Win rate | Final value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published rules | 8.9% | −18.0% | 16 | 50% | $16,358 |
| SMA 5/50 | 10.3% | −17.0% | 21 | 43% | $17,516 |
| SMA 20/50 | 5.9% | −29.8% | 16 | 44% | $13,887 |
| SMA 10/100 | 13.3% | −18.2% | 7 | 86% | $20,460 |
Moving-average variants
Three variants change one of the two lengths.
- SMA 5/50 returned a CAGR of 10.26% with a drawdown of 16.96% and a Sharpe of 0.83, ending at $17,516, after 21 trades and 9 wins.
- SMA 20/50 returned 5.89% with a drawdown of 29.83% and a Sharpe of 0.493, ending at $13,887, after 16 trades and 7 wins.
- SMA 10/100 returned 13.28% with a drawdown of 18.18% and a Sharpe of 1.024, ending at $20,460, after 7 trades and 6 wins.
The 10/100 pair did best, with the highest return and the highest Sharpe ratio, and with only 7 trades of which 6 won. A slower exit line kept the rule in the fund through the shakeouts that the 10/50 sold. Its drawdown was about the same as the standard setting at 18.18%. The faster 5/50 pair also improved on the standard pair, with a higher return and a lower drawdown, at the cost of 21 trades. The 20/50 pair was the worst, with a drawdown of 29.83%.
The variants do not form a smooth curve. Speeding up the fast line from 10 to 5 helped, and slowing it to 20 hurt, so there is no simple relation between speed and result. A change of slow line to 100 gave the largest improvement. With three neighbours tested on one window, the safest reading is that the result depends on the exact pair, and that picking 10/100 after seeing these numbers would be a fit to the past. None of these settings has been tested on another window.
How VOOG behaved
| Measure | VOOG |
|---|---|
| Data in this test | 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 (1444 sessions) |
| Total return, buy and hold | 138.4% |
| Annualized volatility | 20.8% |
| Deepest drawdown | −32.7% (2021-12-27 to 2022-10-14) |
| Up days | 54.8% |
| Average daily range | 1.41% |
| Average overnight gap | 0.55% |
| Correlation to SPY | 0.96 |
| Correlation to QQQ | 0.98 |
| Correlation to TLT | 0.08 |
| Sessions above the 200-day average | 73.6% |
| Crossings of the 200-day average | 32 |
| Falls of 10% or more from a 20-day high | 18 |
How VOOG behaved
Price alone took VOOG up 138.41% across the 1,444 sessions. Only 2022 was negative, at -29.46%, while 2021, 2023 and 2024 each added between 29% and 36% and 2025 added 22.06%. The fall into the 2022-10-14 low started from the 2021-12-27 high and the fund needed until 2024-03-01 to regain it, a stretch the data counts as 546 sessions.
This is a fund that trended for most of the window. Price sat above the 200-day average on 73.57% of sessions, and 54.75% of days closed higher. A trend rule that stays long when the average is up has a lot to work with, and the rule's 66.5% exposure reflects it. The same fund also crossed its 200-day line 32 times, so the trend was not smooth, and the rule's 16 round trips match the swings.
Against SPY the fund's beta was 1.22, and against QQQ it was 0.91. Daily moves correlated at 0.96 with SPY and 0.98 with QQQ, so the fund tracked the large growth stocks that drive both. The correlation to QQQ was close to the highest of any fund in the data, 0.98 for QQQ and QLD. That explains why the results on QQQ and QQQM at 9.03% and 9.05% sit near the VOOG result of 8.95%.
Average daily moves were 0.93% up and -0.99% down, with an average intraday range of 1.41%. Lag-1 autocorrelation was -0.02, so day-to-day persistence was absent, and the persistence the rule used came from the weeks-long swings. There were 18 episodes where the fund fell 10% inside 20 sessions, over 69 days in total.
Most of the fund's return arrived between the close and the next open: 91.1% of it, with 77.45% in overnight log terms against 7.57% during sessions. Orders fill at the open, so the rule earns the overnight gap only on nights it already holds the position. After RSI(14) dropped below 30, on 19 sessions, the median 5-day forward return was 4.28% against a baseline of 0.49%, so dips in VOOG tended to reverse, which helps explain why the RSI(2) snapback did well here.
The rules
A faster moving-average crossover: hold while the 10-day average is above the 50-day.
- WHEN the market opens · IF not invested AND SMA(10) > SMA(50) · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve
- WHEN the market opens · IF invested AND SMA(10) < SMA(50) · THEN sell the whole position
A faster version of the golden cross. The 10- and 50-day averages catch intermediate trends measured in weeks rather than years. It enters recoveries earlier and exits breakdowns earlier, with more whipsaw trades in sideways markets. Useful for seeing how signal speed changes a strategy's results.
Good for: trending assets with multi-week swings, such as leveraged index ETFs.
Watch out: several false signals a year is normal; each whipsaw costs a small loss and they add up in flat markets.
How the rules fit VOOG
Seventh place sits inside a tight cluster of trend and momentum templates. The golden cross made 8.99%, this rule 8.95%, the EMA 12/26 trend 8.87% and the 3-month momentum switch 8.8%. Those four finish within a fraction of a point of each other. On drawdown the EMA pair was lowest at 16.81%, this rule next at 18.02%.
Four templates did better. The weekly 7% target led at 19.51% with a 17.22% drawdown. The RSI(2) snapback followed at 15.89% and the monthly cycle at 13.91%, and the 200-day regime filter made 11.06%. The trend plus trailing stop rule sits just below that at 10.59%. Three templates did worse: RSI mean reversion, the momentum breakout and the dip buyer, at 7.09%, 6.13% and 4.11%.
The fund's profile fits this order. Dips reversed quickly, so snapback rules did well, and the fund trended, so the slow regime filter did well too.
On other broad index funds the same rule did worse where trends were weaker. The large-cap funds SPY and VOO gave 7.94% and 7.97%, with drawdowns near 12.7%. The equal-weight QQQE gave 1.16%, IWM lost 1.2% and EEM lost 3.89%. VOOG's 8.95% is fourth best on that list, with a larger drawdown than SPY or VOO at 18.02%.
The test stops at one window that opens just before the 2022 bear market and closes in a strong rally. It covers one rule with three neighbouring settings, and the headline run carries no costs. The comparison with buy-and-hold is for a fund that returned 15.73% a year in this window, a rate the rule had no chance to match while it sat in cash through the rallies.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.7 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Frequently asked questions
Did SMA 10/50 trend beat buy-and-hold on VOOG?
Over 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, SMA 10/50 trend on VOOG returned 8.9% annualized vs 15.7% for buy-and-hold: it trailed buy-and-hold by 6.8% per year, with a maximum drawdown 14.1 points shallower than holding (18.0% vs 32.1%).
How many trades did it make?
16 completed round trips over 5.7 years (33 fills), with 50% of round trips closing profitably.
Why 10 and 50 days?
A common intermediate-trend pairing. It reacts within weeks and ignores single bad days. Both windows are editable parameters in DeployQuant.
What did the SMA 10/50 trend rule return on VOOG?
A: The rule compounded at 8.95% a year and ended at $16,358, with an 18.02% maximum drawdown. Holding VOOG finished at $23,131 at 15.73% a year, through a 32.13% drawdown. Fees and slippage are left out of the headline run.
Did the 10/50 crossover beat buy-and-hold on VOOG?
A: Not on return. The rule finished ahead in 2022 and 2025 and behind in each other calendar year. It did have a smaller drawdown, 18.02% against 32.13%, and in 2022 it lost 14.2% while the fund lost 29%.
How many trades did it make?
A: Seventeen trades, of which 16 closed and one stayed open. Half of the closed trades won, and the profit factor was 2.62. The median hold was 80 days.
How much do costs matter for this rule?
A: Little in this test: the CAGR was 8.65% with 5 basis points charged and 8.35% with 10. The rule made 33 fills in the window, so a charge on each fill had few chances to add up.
Would a different moving-average pair have done better?
A: In this window SMA 10/100 returned 13.28% a year with a Sharpe ratio of 1.024 and 7 trades, and SMA 5/50 returned 10.26%. SMA 20/50 returned 5.89%. These are neighbouring settings tested on one window, so they show sensitivity and not a validated choice.
How does the rule do on other large index funds?
A: It returned 9.16% on IOO, 9.03% on QQQ, 7.97% on VOO and 7.94% on SPY, and it lost money on IWM and EEM. The full list is on the [strategy page](/learn/strategies/sma-10-50-trend/).
Which strategy did best on VOOG?
A: The weekly 7% target returned 19.51% a year with a drawdown of 17.22%. The SMA 10/50 trend ranked seventh of 12. See the [VOOG page](/learn/etf/voog/) for the full table.
Related
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.