First-to-Last Day of Month
Buy the first session of each month, sell the last — a pure calendar-seasonality test.
The rules
- WHEN the first session of the month opens · IF not invested · THEN buy with 98% of the sleeve (once per month)
- WHEN the last session of the month opens · IF invested · THEN sell the whole position
No indicators at all: this template is a clean experiment on the turn-of-the-month effect, holding only from each month's first open to its last. Whatever it earns or loses is attributable to calendar seasonality alone, which makes it one of the most instructive templates to compare against buy-and-hold on the same page.
Good for: understanding how much of an asset's return accrues inside the month versus across month boundaries.
Watch out: this is a research template more than an edge: it holds ~95% of all sessions, so results usually shadow buy-and-hold minus the boundary days.
Build it from blocks (or type it in English), backtest it on 5.5 years of minute data in seconds, tweak any parameter, then paper trade it on live data. No card, no broker needed to start.
Results on every ETF
| ETF | CAGR | buy & hold | max DD | Sharpe | trades | win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TECL | 27.3% | 31.9% | −78.0% | 0.71 | 67 | 51% |
| SOXX | 25.3% | 29.6% | −44.4% | 0.82 | 67 | 61% |
| SOXL | 22.5% | 30.2% | −90.2% | 0.73 | 67 | 55% |
| ROM | 21.3% | 26.1% | −69.4% | 0.65 | 67 | 55% |
| FAS | 20.1% | 22.9% | −66.7% | 0.63 | 67 | 57% |
| SPUU | 18.9% | 22.0% | −44.2% | 0.73 | 67 | 64% |
| XLK | 18.1% | 20.2% | −32.1% | 0.83 | 67 | 63% |
| SSO | 18.0% | 21.5% | −44.0% | 0.70 | 67 | 64% |
| CLSE | 17.6% | 20.1% | −17.4% | 1.28 | 54 | 61% |
| QLD | 17.4% | 21.6% | −65.0% | 0.60 | 67 | 60% |
| TQQQ | 16.7% | 22.3% | −82.5% | 0.58 | 67 | 58% |
| IOO | 15.4% | 16.4% | −21.1% | 0.99 | 67 | 67% |
| QQQM | 13.5% | 15.8% | −36.7% | 0.72 | 67 | 60% |
| QQQ | 13.4% | 15.8% | −36.1% | 0.71 | 67 | 60% |
| VOOG | 12.8% | 14.9% | −33.9% | 0.72 | 67 | 63% |
| XLF | 12.7% | 14.1% | −23.4% | 0.78 | 67 | 58% |
| VOO | 12.4% | 14.3% | −22.4% | 0.84 | 67 | 67% |
| VTV | 12.3% | 13.9% | −15.3% | 0.98 | 67 | 66% |
| SPY | 12.2% | 14.4% | −22.4% | 0.84 | 67 | 67% |
| VV | 12.1% | 13.9% | −23.7% | 0.81 | 67 | 66% |
| VOOV | 11.5% | 13.2% | −17.8% | 0.89 | 67 | 66% |
| IAU | 10.9% | 13.6% | −26.3% | 0.71 | 67 | 54% |
| TBF | 10.9% | 11.0% | −17.6% | 0.79 | 67 | 58% |
| CTA | 9.5% | 7.2% | −21.1% | 0.67 | 53 | 62% |
| ALTY | 8.1% | 8.7% | −18.4% | 0.84 | 67 | 66% |
| KMLM | 8.0% | 6.0% | −24.0% | 0.65 | 64 | 58% |
| QQQE | 7.3% | 9.4% | −29.1% | 0.47 | 67 | 60% |
| IWM | 7.0% | 8.5% | −36.9% | 0.44 | 67 | 57% |
| XLP | 6.8% | 7.0% | −13.5% | 0.60 | 67 | 55% |
| VOX | 6.2% | 9.2% | −46.2% | 0.42 | 67 | 61% |
| USDU | 5.5% | 5.1% | −7.6% | 0.87 | 67 | 51% |
| RINF | 5.0% | 6.6% | −14.9% | 0.48 | 67 | 55% |
| XLY | 5.0% | 7.3% | −43.8% | 0.34 | 67 | 54% |
| QAI | 3.1% | 3.9% | −16.1% | 0.49 | 67 | 52% |
| SGOV | 3.0% | 3.2% | −0.1% | 12.58 | 67 | 87% |
| EEM | 1.2% | 5.6% | −44.4% | 0.17 | 67 | 52% |
| IGIB | 0.3% | 0.9% | −20.9% | 0.08 | 67 | 58% |
| FXE | −0.2% | −0.7% | −22.5% | 0.03 | 67 | 52% |
| IEI | −0.5% | 0.0% | −14.9% | -0.09 | 67 | 52% |
| AGG | −0.5% | −0.3% | −18.9% | -0.07 | 67 | 54% |
| BND | −0.5% | −0.3% | −19.0% | -0.07 | 67 | 54% |
| UDN | −0.6% | −1.0% | −22.6% | -0.05 | 67 | 51% |
| IEF | −2.2% | −1.6% | −24.7% | -0.28 | 67 | 48% |
| EEV | −5.2% | −14.5% | −72.1% | 0.04 | 67 | 45% |
| TLT | −7.4% | −7.3% | −46.2% | -0.47 | 67 | 43% |
| UST | −7.7% | −7.3% | −47.7% | -0.50 | 67 | 48% |
| SPDN | −8.5% | −9.7% | −41.5% | -0.49 | 67 | 36% |
| SH | −8.7% | −9.9% | −42.3% | -0.52 | 67 | 36% |
| VXZ | −11.5% | −13.9% | −59.1% | -0.32 | 67 | 46% |
| PSQ | −11.8% | −13.2% | −59.8% | -0.49 | 67 | 37% |
| VIXM | −13.8% | −14.9% | −63.3% | -0.38 | 67 | 45% |
| SDS | −20.3% | −22.1% | −73.8% | -0.58 | 67 | 33% |
| QID | −27.0% | −28.9% | −87.2% | -0.53 | 67 | 34% |
| TMF | −30.8% | −30.7% | −89.2% | -0.65 | 67 | 40% |
| REW | −34.1% | −33.6% | −92.5% | -0.61 | 67 | 33% |
| SQQQ | −40.3% | −30.9% | −95.8% | -0.54 | 67 | 33% |
| TECS | −45.5% | −21.8% | −97.6% | -0.70 | 67 | 33% |
| SOXS | −50.5% | −30.5% | −98.8% | -0.70 | 29 | 28% |
| UVXY | −55.5% | −38.0% | −99.0% | -0.66 | 62 | 37% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the monthly cycle strategy?
Buy the first session of each month, sell the last — a pure calendar-seasonality test. No indicators at all: this template is a clean experiment on the turn-of-the-month effect, holding only from each month's first open to its last. Whatever it earns or loses is attributable to calendar seasonality alone, which makes it one of the most instructive templates to compare against buy-and-hold on the same page.
Does monthly cycle beat buy-and-hold?
Across 59 ETFs backtested 2021-01-04–2026-07-17, it beat same-ETF buy-and-hold on 13 of 59 (22%). Median CAGR was 6.2% with a median max drawdown of 36.7%. Per-ETF results vary widely — see the table.
Is the turn-of-the-month effect real?
It has appeared in long historical studies, but it's regime-dependent and small. These pages let you check the recent five and a half years per ETF instead of trusting a decades-old average.
Compare with other strategies
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.