Golden Cross (SMA 50/200) vs First-to-Last Day of Month
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| golden cross | monthly cycle | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.1% | −36.7% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 30 | 29 |
| Style | long-horizon investors who want to hold trends but sidestep multi-year bear markets | understanding how much of an asset's return accrues inside the month versus across month boundaries |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | golden cross | monthly cycle | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVXY | −10.2% | −55.5% | 45.2% |
| SOXS | −7.3% | −50.5% | 43.3% |
| SQQQ | −7.5% | −40.3% | 32.8% |
| TECS | −17.2% | −45.5% | 28.3% |
| REW | −6.9% | −34.1% | 27.2% |
| FAS | −3.5% | 20.1% | 23.6% |
| TECL | 4.2% | 27.3% | 23.1% |
| TMF | −8.8% | −30.8% | 22.0% |
| QID | −6.2% | −27.0% | 20.8% |
| SOXL | 43.0% | 22.5% | 20.5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: golden cross or monthly cycle?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, golden cross produced the higher CAGR on 30 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: golden cross 2.4% vs monthly cycle 6.2%; median max drawdown: 21.1% vs 36.7%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.