EMA 12/26 Trend vs 3-Month Momentum Switch
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| EMA 12/26 trend | 3-month momentum | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Median max drawdown | −21.3% | −26.8% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 47 | 12 |
| Style | traders who like MACD logic but want it expressed as a simple, testable long/flat rule | assets with long, persistent cycles — index, sector, and even managed-futures ETFs |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | EMA 12/26 trend | 3-month momentum | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| KMLM | −100.0% | 0.1% | 100.1% |
| TECL | 21.3% | 6.8% | 14.5% |
| SPUU | 20.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| SSO | 19.2% | 8.9% | 10.3% |
| ROM | 16.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% |
| UVXY | −35.5% | −44.2% | 8.7% |
| FAS | 8.3% | 1.0% | 7.3% |
| TECS | −24.2% | −17.1% | 7.1% |
| TQQQ | 17.6% | 10.8% | 6.9% |
| XLY | 2.7% | −4.1% | 6.8% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: EMA 12/26 trend or 3-month momentum?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, EMA 12/26 trend produced the higher CAGR on 47 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: EMA 12/26 trend 2.7% vs 3-month momentum 0.1%; median max drawdown: 21.3% vs 26.8%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.