3-Month Momentum Switch vs RSI(14) Mean Reversion
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| 3-month momentum | RSI mean reversion | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 0.1% | 2.5% |
| Median max drawdown | −26.8% | −24.7% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 26 | 33 |
| Style | assets with long, persistent cycles — index, sector, and even managed-futures ETFs | assets that trend up over time but overshoot on the way — broad index ETFs are the classic home |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | 3-month momentum | RSI mean reversion | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UST | −100.0% | −4.3% | 95.7% |
| FAS | 1.0% | 26.5% | 25.5% |
| SOXS | −14.2% | −38.2% | 24.0% |
| EEV | −8.9% | 11.2% | 20.1% |
| SOXL | 23.1% | 4.0% | 19.1% |
| TECL | 6.8% | 20.1% | 13.3% |
| UVXY | −44.2% | −32.1% | 12.2% |
| CLSE | 12.8% | 0.9% | 11.9% |
| XLY | −4.1% | 6.0% | 10.1% |
| QQQE | −3.4% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: 3-month momentum or RSI mean reversion?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, RSI mean reversion produced the higher CAGR on 33 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: 3-month momentum 0.1% vs RSI mean reversion 2.5%; median max drawdown: 26.8% vs 24.7%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.