Drawdown Dip Buyer + 8% Target vs First-to-Last Day of Month
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and one window.
| dip buyer | monthly cycle | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 1.3% | 5.5% |
| Median max drawdown | −26.2% | −36.6% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 24 | 35 |
| Style | assets that sell off hard and recover; it trades volatility without chasing strength | measuring how much of an asset's return accrues inside the month versus across month boundaries |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | dip buyer | monthly cycle | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOXS | −46.2% | −77.5% | 31.3% |
| UVXY | −48.7% | −68.7% | 20.0% |
| SOXL | 16.4% | 32.9% | 16.4% |
| CLSE | 3.4% | 18.9% | 15.5% |
| XLK | 7.8% | 20.9% | 13.0% |
| IAU | −0.8% | 11.8% | 12.6% |
| TECL | 24.7% | 36.0% | 11.3% |
| TECS | −45.3% | −55.6% | 10.3% |
| SPY | 2.6% | 12.8% | 10.2% |
| VOO | 2.6% | 12.8% | 10.2% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: dip buyer or monthly cycle?
On this 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02 window, monthly cycle produced the higher CAGR on 35 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: dip buyer 1.3% vs monthly cycle 5.5%; median max drawdown: 26.2% vs 36.6%. Which is better depends on the asset and what you optimize for. The per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-10-02, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, no fees or slippage in the headline run; buy-and-hold puts 98% of the account in at the first open, as the templates do) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.