3-Month Momentum Switch vs SMA 10/50 Trend
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| 3-month momentum | SMA 10/50 trend | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| Median max drawdown | −26.8% | −22.0% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 12 | 47 |
| Style | assets with long, persistent cycles — index, sector, and even managed-futures ETFs | trending assets where multi-week swings are worth catching — leveraged index ETFs are a common pairing |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | 3-month momentum | SMA 10/50 trend | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| UST | −100.0% | 0.4% | 100.4% |
| EEV | −8.9% | −24.4% | 15.5% |
| UVXY | −44.2% | −33.5% | 10.8% |
| TECL | 6.8% | 17.4% | 10.5% |
| TQQQ | 10.8% | 19.1% | 8.4% |
| SOXX | 15.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% |
| TECS | −17.1% | −23.7% | 6.6% |
| QLD | 13.1% | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| SOXL | 23.1% | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| SOXS | −14.2% | −20.4% | 6.2% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: 3-month momentum or SMA 10/50 trend?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, SMA 10/50 trend produced the higher CAGR on 47 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: 3-month momentum 0.1% vs SMA 10/50 trend 2.0%; median max drawdown: 26.8% vs 22.0%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.