RSI(14) Mean Reversion vs SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| RSI mean reversion | trend + trailing stop | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| Median max drawdown | −24.7% | −30.0% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 22 | 37 |
| Style | assets that trend up over time but overshoot on the way — broad index ETFs are the classic home | long trends with tolerable pullbacks; the 15% trail is wide enough to survive normal corrections |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | RSI mean reversion | trend + trailing stop | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOXS | −38.2% | 9.2% | 47.4% |
| FAS | 26.5% | −8.1% | 34.5% |
| CLSE | 0.9% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| SOXL | 4.0% | 19.5% | 15.5% |
| TECS | −24.0% | −8.9% | 15.1% |
| TQQQ | 7.9% | 22.1% | 14.2% |
| TECL | 20.1% | 7.8% | 12.3% |
| EEV | 11.2% | −0.9% | 12.1% |
| SQQQ | −23.5% | −12.1% | 11.4% |
| IAU | 4.6% | 15.2% | 10.5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: RSI mean reversion or trend + trailing stop?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, trend + trailing stop produced the higher CAGR on 37 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: RSI mean reversion 2.5% vs trend + trailing stop 3.2%; median max drawdown: 24.7% vs 30.0%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.