20-Day Momentum + Trailing Stop vs SMA-200 Trend + 15% Trailing Stop
Two rule sets, 59 ETFs, one engine and window — a genuinely like-for-like comparison.
| momentum breakout | trend + trailing stop | |
|---|---|---|
| Median CAGR (59 ETFs) | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| Median max drawdown | −20.1% | −30.0% |
| ETFs won (by CAGR) | 26 | 33 |
| Style | high-momentum assets where trends extend — semiconductor and leveraged tech ETFs show the archetype | long trends with tolerable pullbacks; the 15% trail is wide enough to survive normal corrections |
Where the gap was biggest
| ETF | momentum breakout | trend + trailing stop | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| TQQQ | 3.1% | 22.1% | 18.9% |
| EEV | −14.8% | −0.9% | 13.9% |
| TBF | −2.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% |
| FAS | 4.0% | −8.1% | 12.1% |
| CLSE | 10.2% | 19.3% | 9.0% |
| XLY | 4.9% | −3.8% | 8.7% |
| VXZ | −17.9% | −9.9% | 7.9% |
| SOXS | 1.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% |
| CTA | −4.0% | 3.7% | 7.7% |
| UVXY | −30.3% | −23.3% | 7.0% |
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Frequently asked questions
Which is better: momentum breakout or trend + trailing stop?
On this 2021-01-04–2026-07-17 window, trend + trailing stop produced the higher CAGR on 33 of 59 ETFs. Median CAGR: momentum breakout 0.0% vs trend + trailing stop 3.2%; median max drawdown: 20.1% vs 30.0%. "Better" depends on the asset and what you optimize — the per-ETF table shows where each wins.
Dig deeper
Backtests are hypothetical, computed by DeployQuant's engine on minute-resolution consolidated US market data (2021-01-04 to 2026-07-17, $10,000 starting capital, no margin, fees and slippage not modeled) and do not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Live trading involves risk of loss.